India| Planet & Commerce
Even as US President Donald Trump’s administration rolls out steep 50% tariffs on Indian imports — a penalty tied to New Delhi’s purchase of Russian oil — global ratings agency S&P has issued a reassuring forecast: India’s economic growth will remain robust. According to S&P Global Ratings Director YeeFarn Phua, the Indian economy’s fundamentals, coupled with its unique growth drivers, make it highly resilient to the impact of such punitive trade measures.
Speaking during a webinar on Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings, Phua dismissed concerns that the tariffs — implemented in two stages, with the first 25% effective from August 7 and the second 25% set for August 28 — would derail India’s growth trajectory. Instead, S&P expects GDP growth to hold steady at 6.5% for the current fiscal year, matching last year’s pace, with India’s sovereign ratings outlook remaining “positive.”
Phua’s core argument rests on the fact that India is not a highly trade-oriented economy. In particular, India’s exposure to the US — in terms of goods exports as a percentage of GDP — stands at only about 2%. This means that even significant tariff increases on certain products have a limited macroeconomic effect.
“I don’t think the tariffs imposed on India will have an impact in terms of economic growth, largely because India is not a very trade-oriented economy,” Phua said, adding that the country’s GDP is driven more by domestic consumption and investment than by exports.
Moreover, key export sectors to the US — such as pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics — are exempt from the tariff list, further insulating India from immediate damage.
In May last year, S&P upgraded the outlook on India’s sovereign credit rating from “stable” to “positive” while keeping the rating at BBB-, citing sustained robust growth and macroeconomic stability. The agency’s latest assessment reaffirms that view.
Phua emphasized that while trade frictions may occasionally emerge between the US and India, they are unlikely to alter the country’s medium- to long-term growth dynamics. He noted that India’s economic engine is powered by factors such as its large and growing middle class, expanding domestic demand, and policy reforms that continue to attract investment.
When asked whether higher US tariffs could deter foreign investment, Phua said the global “China plus one” diversification strategy — where companies establish operations outside China to spread risk — has already been playing out in India’s favour for several years.
Importantly, many multinational companies are setting up in India primarily to serve its domestic market rather than to rely on US-bound exports.
“Many (businesses) are going there not because they are looking to export just to the US… An emerging middle class is getting larger. So, even for those who are looking to invest more in India and looking to export, it might not necessarily be the US market,” Phua explained.
Although the US remains India’s largest trading partner, the numbers show why the macroeconomic impact of tariffs will be limited. Between 2021 and 2025, the US accounted for about:
In the fiscal year 2024–25, India exported goods worth USD 86.5 billion to the US, while importing USD 45.3 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 41 billion — slightly lower than the USD 35.32 billion surplus recorded the previous year. Total bilateral trade in 2024–25 reached USD 186 billion.
India’s current growth model relies on a combination of domestic consumption, infrastructure expansion, and technology-driven services exports. While the US is a vital market for Indian IT services, the Trump administration’s tariff hikes primarily target goods, not services.
Additionally, India’s economy benefits from:
While Trump’s 50% tariff policy is politically charged and could affect specific exporters, S&P’s analysis suggests the broader economic impact on India will be minimal. The country’s relatively low export dependence on the US, exemptions for major export categories, and strong domestic demand all contribute to this resilience.
India’s growth story, backed by structural reforms and demographic advantages, appears capable of withstanding short-term trade turbulence — ensuring that the sovereign ratings outlook remains positive and GDP growth stays on track at 6.5%.
India| Planet & Commerce
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar will travel to Russia next week for a two-day visit aimed at strengthening India-Russia ties, finalizing details for President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming trip to India, and discussing pressing bilateral and global issues. The visit comes at a delicate moment in India’s foreign relations — just days after National Security Advisor Ajit Doval met Putin in Moscow, and amid growing tensions between New Delhi and Washington over India’s continued purchase of Russian crude oil.
Jaishankar is expected to hold wide-ranging talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, co-chair the 26th session of the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific-Technological and Cultural Cooperation, and possibly meet President Putin himself.
The minister’s visit follows NSA Ajit Doval’s high-profile trip to Moscow earlier this month, during which Doval held direct discussions with Putin and senior Russian officials. That meeting set the stage for Jaishankar’s follow-up engagement, as both sides seek to solidify the agenda for Putin’s visit to India later this year.
According to Russia’s foreign ministry deputy spokesperson Aleksey Fadeyev, Jaishankar’s talks with Lavrov will address “the most important issues of the bilateral agenda” — a phrase that underscores the strategic depth of the discussions.
During the visit, Jaishankar will co-chair the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission alongside Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov. This platform is central to managing trade, economic, technological, and cultural cooperation between the two nations.
One major talking point will be India’s energy imports from Russia — a subject that has drawn sharp criticism from Washington. Since Western sanctions on Moscow in 2022 following the Ukraine invasion, India has dramatically increased its purchases of discounted Russian crude. From just 1.7% of total oil imports in 2019–20, Russia’s share has soared to 35.1% in 2024–25, making it India’s largest oil supplier.
The United States has reacted to India’s Russian oil purchases with punitive trade measures. Last week, President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, on top of an earlier 25% duty, bringing the total to 50%.
These tariffs are explicitly framed as a penalty for New Delhi’s continued energy trade with Moscow. India, however, has defended its position as one rooted in national interest and market dynamics, pointing to the strategic imperative of securing affordable energy supplies for its rapidly growing economy.
Another critical element of Jaishankar’s Moscow agenda will be discussions on the Ukraine war. India has consistently maintained that the conflict should be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy, rejecting the notion that a solution can be achieved on the battlefield.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has personally conveyed this stance to both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In July last year, during a visit to Moscow, Modi told Putin that “peace efforts do not succeed in the midst of bombs and bullets.” The following month in Kyiv, Modi urged Zelenskyy that Ukraine and Russia should “sit together, without wasting time,” to end the war.
Jaishankar’s trip may also explore avenues for India to play a facilitative role in peace efforts, while balancing its strategic partnership with Russia and its growing engagement with the West.
Jaishankar’s visit is not merely a routine diplomatic call — it is a signal of India’s commitment to maintaining a balanced foreign policy amidst shifting geopolitical currents.
For Moscow, the talks will help reinforce its ties with a major Asian power that has resisted Western pressure to cut economic links. For New Delhi, the trip underscores the importance of sustaining a historically close defense and energy partnership with Russia, even as it navigates an increasingly complex relationship with Washington.
The discussions will also prepare the groundwork for Putin’s high-stakes visit to India later this year — a summit that will likely produce new agreements in trade, defense cooperation, energy, and technology.
S. Jaishankar’s upcoming Moscow visit encapsulates India’s delicate balancing act: deepening ties with Russia while managing tensions with the United States. The talks will cover trade, energy security, strategic cooperation, and global diplomacy on Ukraine, all while finalizing preparations for Putin’s trip to New Delhi.
In a climate of heightened US–Russia confrontation and persistent pressure on countries engaging with Moscow, India’s foreign policy calculus remains firmly anchored in strategic autonomy — the principle that its decisions must serve its national interests above all else.
The outcomes of Jaishankar’s Moscow mission could shape the trajectory of India–Russia relations for the coming years, while signaling to the world that New Delhi will continue charting its own independent course in global affairs.
Palestine| Planet & Commerce
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has issued a formal warning to Israel that its armed forces could be named in the UN’s next annual report on sexual violence in conflict. The move follows concerns over credible allegations of sexual abuse against Palestinian detainees in Israeli custody, documented by UN monitors and human rights organizations.
In a letter to Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, Guterres said he was “putting Israeli armed and security forces on notice” due to “significant concerns of patterns of certain forms of sexual violence that have been consistently documented by the United Nations.” The warning marks an escalation in UN scrutiny of Israel’s treatment of Palestinians during the ongoing conflict and detention operations.
Every year, the UN Office of the Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict releases a Conflict-Related Sexual Violence report, naming state and non-state actors accused of committing or tolerating sexual abuse in wartime. The listing process carries reputational consequences and can trigger calls for international sanctions, travel restrictions, and arms embargoes.
Guterres’ letter indicates that Israeli forces could be named in the upcoming report unless there is evidence of concrete steps to halt alleged abuses and ensure accountability.
According to the letter, the UN has “credible information of violations by Israeli armed and security forces” perpetrated against Palestinians “in several prisons, a detention center, and [a] military base.” The alleged abuses are said to include sexual violence against detainees, which UN monitors have struggled to fully investigate due to what Guterres described as “consistent denial of access” to detention facilities.
The Secretary-General urged Israel to take “necessary measures to ensure immediate cessation of all acts of sexual violence.”
A 2024 report by Israeli human rights group B’Tselem alleged that sexual violence was repeatedly committed by soldiers or prison guards against Palestinian detainees. Facilities named in various investigations include Sde Teiman and Ketziot Prisons in the Negev desert, Megiddo and Gilboa near the West Bank, and Etzion in Jerusalem.
Last year, Israel transferred hundreds of Palestinian detainees out of the Sde Teiman facility following a petition from human rights groups. The petition, supported by CNN’s reporting on the makeshift prison, called for its closure. In September 2024, Israel’s High Court of Justice warned that Sde Teiman must operate in compliance with the law but stopped short of ordering it shut down.
Despite these measures, human rights advocates claim that abusive practices remain widespread and that accountability is rare.
Ambassador Danny Danon dismissed Guterres’ warning as relying on “baseless accusations” from “biased publications,” urging the UN to instead focus on sexual violence committed by Hamas.
Israel has consistently denied allegations of systematic abuse, rejecting previous UN statements as politically motivated. Its mission to the UN in Geneva has accused UN agencies of attempting to “incriminate” the Israeli military and of downplaying or ignoring Hamas’s own atrocities.
In March, a UN commission accused Israel of “increasingly employ[ing] sexual, reproductive, and other forms of gender-based violence” against Palestinians as part of a broader strategy to undermine their right to self-determination. The commission also alleged that Israel committed “genocidal acts” by systematically destroying sexual and reproductive healthcare facilities in Palestinian territories. Israel rejected these findings outright.
At the same time, the UN has documented sexual violence committed by Hamas. A UN team last year reported “clear and convincing” information that hostages taken to Gaza after the October 7 attacks were sexually abused, with “reasonable grounds” to believe such abuse was ongoing. Pramila Patten, the UN special envoy on sexual violence in conflict, stated that the team had found credible evidence of rape and gang rape during the attack, marking the UN’s most definitive assessment of those allegations.
If Israel is listed in the UN’s 2025 report on conflict-related sexual violence, it would join a roster of states and armed groups accused of such crimes, potentially exposing it to intensified diplomatic pressure and human rights investigations. The listing could also embolden international legal proceedings and advocacy campaigns targeting Israel’s military conduct.
For the UN, the warning reflects an effort to apply uniform standards to all parties in armed conflict, regardless of their political or military alliances. However, the move will likely deepen tensions between Israel and the UN, which have grown more strained over the war in Gaza and civilian casualties.
Guterres’ letter to Israel signals that the UN is prepared to escalate its criticism over alleged sexual violence against Palestinian detainees, even against a powerful and historically contentious member state. Israel’s categorical rejection of the charges, coupled with its calls for the UN to focus on Hamas, sets the stage for a renewed battle over narrative and accountability.
The final decision on whether Israel will be formally listed will rest on developments in the coming months — including whether it allows UN access to detention facilities, implements safeguards against abuse, and prosecutes offenders. Until then, the diplomatic standoff over human rights and sexual violence allegations is set to remain a heated fault line in the already fraught Israel–UN relationship.
USA| Planet & Commerce
The Trump administration’s ambitious Golden Dome missile defense system — an unprecedented $175 billion project — is being billed as a game-changer in U.S. homeland security. Designed to integrate space-based interceptors, ground-launched missile systems, and advanced radar and laser arrays, the project seeks to provide a multi-layered protective shield capable of neutralizing threats ranging from intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to hypersonic glide vehicles and drone swarms.
Announced in broad terms during Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign and fast-tracked after his return to office, Golden Dome has now been detailed in a series of U.S. government slides first reported by Reuters. Presented to roughly 3,000 defense contractors in Huntsville, Alabama, the slides bore the slogan “Go Fast, Think Big!” — an encapsulation of both the project’s urgency and its sweeping scale.
At the core of the Golden Dome concept is an integrated architecture comprising:
The modular and relocatable nature of the lower layers would allow for rapid deployment in multiple theaters, minimizing reliance on permanent fixed sites.
One of Golden Dome’s defining goals — and its most technically challenging — is to achieve reliable boost-phase interception. This phase, typically lasting only a few minutes after missile launch, offers the advantage of destroying a threat before it can deploy decoys or maneuver.
While the U.S. has developed interceptors and reentry vehicles separately, it has never built a vehicle that can both survive the extreme heat of atmospheric reentry and execute an intercept on a hostile missile. Doing so will require breakthroughs in materials science, guidance algorithms, and propulsion systems — all under an ambitious deadline of 2028.
The most striking new detail from the Huntsville presentation was the planned Midwest missile field. Mapped as a large-scale interceptor base, it would complement existing GMD sites in Alaska and California, providing overlapping coverage across the continental United States.
The Midwest location is strategically advantageous: it offers central positioning for defending both coasts, adds redundancy in case coastal sites are compromised, and shortens the engagement window against certain missile trajectories from Eurasia or the Middle East.
Lockheed Martin, which is heavily involved in NGI development, touted the Golden Dome as a “defense system that shields America from aerial threats, hypersonic missiles, and drone swarms with unmatched speed and accuracy.”
Golden Dome’s potential industrial base reads like a who’s who of the U.S. defense sector — Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX (Raytheon), and Boeing — all contributing specialized systems. However, notable by its absence from the slides was Elon Musk’s SpaceX, despite its earlier interest in providing launch services and space-based interceptor platforms.
Other firms vying for roles include Palantir, specializing in software and data integration, and Anduril Industries, known for autonomous defense systems. The Pentagon has emphasized that the program is still in its early acquisition phase, with architecture decisions pending after a round of industry, academic, and national lab consultations.
The Golden Dome’s projected $175 billion price tag comes with significant uncertainties. A U.S. official speaking to Reuters noted, “They have a lot of money, but they don’t have a target of what it costs yet.”
So far:
The timeline is equally aggressive. Space Force General Michael Guetlein, newly confirmed to lead the project, has:
Trump has repeatedly compared Golden Dome to Israel’s Iron Dome, a short-range defense system funded heavily by the U.S. that has proven effective against rockets and artillery fire. However, the Golden Dome’s scope dwarfs its Israeli counterpart, tasked with defending an entire continent — plus Alaska and Hawaii — against threats of vastly greater speed, range, and complexity.
Where Iron Dome relies on ground-based radar and interceptors within a few dozen kilometers of target areas, Golden Dome aims to combine space-based sensors, boost-phase interceptors, and layered ground defenses spanning thousands of kilometers.
If successful, Golden Dome would mark a major leap in U.S. strategic defense capabilities, effectively making large-scale missile attacks on the homeland far less viable. But its implementation raises complex issues:
Trump has cast Golden Dome as a signature achievement of his presidency, aligning it with his campaign promise to build “a missile defense shield around our country.” Its rapid progress — even in the planning phase — is intended to signal decisive leadership on national security.
But the ambitious timetable and cost could become political liabilities if milestones are missed or if Congress balks at additional appropriations. The project’s success may hinge on maintaining bipartisan support, something complicated by the deep partisan divides over Trump’s broader defense and foreign policies.
Golden Dome’s vision — intercepting missiles in space, adding a central U.S. missile field, integrating lasers, and deploying modular interceptors — represents one of the most technically ambitious defense undertakings in American history. Its $175 billion budget reflects both the enormity of the task and the political weight Trump has attached to it.
If it meets its 2028 deadline, the system could redefine U.S. homeland defense for a generation, potentially neutralizing threats before they reach American soil. But the technical, financial, and geopolitical hurdles are formidable.
For now, Golden Dome remains a bold blueprint — one that blends cutting-edge engineering with the high-stakes politics of defense spending, national security, and presidential legacy. Whether it becomes a historic success or a cautionary tale of overreach will be determined in the years ahead.
New Zealand| Planet & Commerce
In one of the strongest rebukes yet from a New Zealand leader toward Israel’s conduct in Gaza, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon declared on Wednesday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has “lost the plot,” condemning Israel’s planned military takeover of Gaza City as “utterly unacceptable.” The remarks underscore growing rifts between Israel and its Western partners as global outrage builds over the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in the enclave.
Luxon’s comments came as his conservative coalition government faces mounting pressure at home and abroad to join its Five Eyes security alliance partners — Australia, Britain, and Canada — in recognizing a Palestinian state. Only New Zealand and the United States have yet to pledge such recognition, with the issue now under active review in Wellington.
Speaking to New Zealand media, Luxon accused Netanyahu of ignoring the international community’s demand for “unfettered” humanitarian aid access into Gaza. “I think Netanyahu has gone too far. I think he has lost the plot,” Luxon said. “And I think what we are seeing overnight with the attack on Gaza City is utterly, utterly unacceptable.”
Luxon warned that Israel’s planned occupation of Gaza City, which could forcibly displace up to one million people, amounts to a breach of international law if it results in annexation or permanent population transfer. “We have said a forcible displacement of people and an annexation of Gaza would be a breach of international law,” he reiterated.
Netanyahu’s office has not yet responded to Luxon’s remarks.
The prime minister’s comments follow days of intensifying aerial bombardments by Israel and an escalation toward a full military takeover of Gaza City. Aid groups and foreign governments warn that the consequences for civilians are already catastrophic.
According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, at least 227 people — including 103 children — have died from malnutrition since the start of the war. Aid deliveries have been throttled by Israeli restrictions, with convoys frequently denied entry or delayed at checkpoints.
Foreign ministers from dozens of countries issued a joint statement on Tuesday warning that “famine is unfolding before our eyes” and that suffering in Gaza has reached “unimaginable levels.” They called for an immediate end to restrictions on humanitarian operations and for Israel to allow more aid into the besieged territory.
Luxon’s criticism adds to a chorus of Western leaders who have in recent days openly questioned Netanyahu’s handling of the war. On Tuesday, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that, in a direct conversation, Netanyahu appeared to be “in denial” about the human cost of the conflict. “He again reiterated to me what he has said publicly as well, which is to be in denial about the consequences that are occurring for innocent people,” Albanese told Australia’s ABC network.
Earlier this week, Australia announced it would move to recognize Palestinian statehood at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) meeting in September, leaving New Zealand isolated among Five Eyes members other than the United States.
French President Emmanuel Macron has also committed to recognizing a Palestinian state in September, stating in July: “The urgent need today is to end the war in Gaza and to rescue the civilian population.” Macron has reiterated demands for a ceasefire, humanitarian access, the release of hostages, and the demilitarization of Hamas.
Luxon said Monday that New Zealand would consider its stance on Palestinian statehood recognition “over the next month.” The delay has prompted fierce criticism domestically, with opposition figures accusing the government of moral timidity.
Former Prime Minister Helen Clark, who later served as head of the United Nations Development Program, told RNZ that the government’s hesitation was “humiliating” for New Zealand. “We now really seem to stand for nothing except you know, somehow wanting to save our own skin in a tariff war,” Clark said.
The criticism escalated in Parliament on Wednesday when Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick was ejected for refusing to apologize after telling government MPs to “grow a spine” and back a bill sanctioning Israel. “If we find six of 68 government MPs with a spine, we can stand on the right side of history,” Swarbrick said earlier in the week.
Israel’s decision to extend its military campaign into Gaza City marks one of the most aggressive phases of the war yet. The operation is expected to trigger mass displacement and, according to humanitarian organizations, could render the city uninhabitable for years.
International law experts have warned that the forced transfer of civilians from occupied territory — particularly if accompanied by annexation — is prohibited under the Fourth Geneva Convention. Luxon’s warning that such actions would breach international law reflects growing concern among U.N. member states that the Gaza offensive may cross a legal red line.
The widening gap between the positions of Washington’s closest allies and the Biden administration has become increasingly apparent. While the United States and Israel have both condemned moves to recognize Palestinian statehood outside the framework of negotiations, many Western capitals are now moving toward recognition precisely because negotiations have stalled and the humanitarian situation has worsened.
Washington’s reluctance to back recognition is placing it at odds with partners like France, Australia, Canada, and potentially New Zealand if Luxon’s government decides to shift policy next month.
The international community’s immediate priorities in Gaza remain consistent:
Luxon’s intervention aligns with these priorities, though critics at home argue that rhetoric without concrete policy changes — such as sanctions or statehood recognition — will do little to influence events on the ground.
For Luxon, the Gaza crisis presents a political balancing act. His National Party-led coalition must navigate domestic calls for a more assertive humanitarian stance without alienating traditional allies like the United States. Yet his blunt criticism of Netanyahu suggests a willingness to stake out a position more independent of Washington than many expected.
The next month will be pivotal. A decision to recognize Palestinian statehood would place New Zealand alongside most of its Western allies and bolster its international reputation for supporting humanitarian principles. Choosing not to recognize, however, risks deepening domestic divisions and reinforcing perceptions of diplomatic passivity.
Luxon’s statement that Netanyahu has “lost the plot” signals a potential shift in New Zealand’s traditionally cautious Middle East policy. With famine gripping Gaza, civilian casualties mounting, and international patience wearing thin, Wellington is being pushed toward a clearer position on Palestinian statehood and Israel’s conduct in the war.
Whether New Zealand follows the lead of Australia, Canada, France, and others at September’s UNGA could determine its future credibility in global human rights diplomacy. For Luxon, the challenge will be to match strong words with decisive action — and to ensure that New Zealand stands, as critics demand, “on the right side of history.”
Ukraine| Planet & Commerce
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has delivered a stark warning ahead of Friday’s high-stakes Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, rejecting any proposal that Ukraine should cede parts of its territory to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire. Speaking from Berlin before a virtual meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump and European leaders, Zelenskyy said Moscow’s demands to take over all remaining Ukrainian-held areas of Donbas would merely provide a “springboard for a future new offensive”.
His remarks come as Russian sabotage groups reportedly breached Ukrainian lines in the Donbas region, advancing roughly six miles in three days, and as U.S. and European allies express deep concern that the Alaska meeting could lead to a negotiated settlement redrawing Ukraine’s borders by force — something 26 of 27 EU leaders have categorically rejected.
In a joint statement ahead of the Alaska summit, all EU leaders except Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán affirmed that “territorial integrity must be respected” and “international borders must not be changed by force.” Orbán, who maintains friendly ties with Moscow, has repeatedly obstructed EU measures to support Ukraine.
European governments, mindful of their own continent’s history of shifting borders after devastating wars, view any formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over conquered Ukrainian land as an unacceptable precedent.
Zelenskyy told reporters that Russia’s latest offer — its first public suggestion it might accept a ceasefire since the start of the full-scale war — was disingenuous. Moscow indicated it would halt offensives if Ukraine withdrew from the remaining parts of Donbas it still controls, but would not return any territory it has already taken.
“We will not leave Donbas. We cannot do it,” Zelenskyy said. “For Russians, Donbas is a springboard for a future new offensive.” The region sought by Russia covers roughly 90,000 square kilometers, an area Zelenskyy described as “too strategically important” because it serves as a fortified shield protecting Ukraine’s major central cities.
He stressed that any territorial talks must be linked to ironclad security guarantees, warning: “I have heard nothing — not a single proposal — that would guarantee that a new war will not start tomorrow and that Putin will not try to occupy at least Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv once Russia has all of Donbas.”
Zelenskyy outlined an alternative path toward peace:
These conditions, he argued, would reduce the risk of Russia regrouping and launching fresh offensives.
Although he will not attend the Alaska summit, Zelenskyy expressed cautious optimism about Trump’s role. “I do not believe that Putin’s proposal is Trump’s proposal. I believe that Trump represents the United States of America. He is acting as a mediator — he is in the middle, not on Russia’s side. Let him not be on our side but in the middle,” Zelenskyy said.
He acknowledged that he does not know the full agenda of the Trump-Putin talks, speculating there may be a “bilateral track” on trade, sanctions, and other U.S.-Russia interests. Still, he noted that the very act of Putin securing such a meeting is a diplomatic win for Moscow, which is seeking the symbolic value of photographs with the U.S. president.
Ukraine’s military reported that Russian “sabotage and reconnaissance groups” have infiltrated areas near Dobropillya, a key supply hub in western Donetsk. While analysts at the Institute for the Study of War stressed it is “premature to call the Russian advances an operational-level breakthrough,” they warned Moscow could attempt to turn small gains into a more substantial push.
Russia has concentrated around 110,000 troops in this sector and is relying heavily on infantry assaults, sustaining estimated daily casualties of 1,000 soldiers — roughly 500 killed and 500 wounded on Monday alone, according to Zelenskyy. Ukrainian losses on the same day were far lower — 18 killed, 243 wounded, and 79 missing — but past experience has shown that once Russian troops break through, Ukraine struggles to reclaim lost ground.
Dobropillya’s location makes it crucial: it feeds supply lines to the embattled towns of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in the south and to major Ukrainian-held cities in Donbas to the east. Losing it could destabilize the broader defense of eastern Ukraine.
Former senior Ukrainian officer Bohdan Krotevych criticized Kyiv’s decision-making, saying commanders had diverted newly mobilized troops into assault roles instead of reinforcing front-line defenses. “To stabilize the front, we must reinforce brigades on the line of contact with infantry,” he urged.
Zelenskyy warned that Putin’s military moves are timed to influence the Alaska summit’s optics. “They want to create a certain narrative, especially in the American media, that Russia is moving forward and Ukraine is losing,” he said. Such a portrayal, he argued, is designed to convince Trump that continued U.S. military and financial support for Ukraine is a losing bet.
Beyond Donbas, Ukrainian intelligence believes Russia is planning a larger autumn offensive, repositioning nearly 30,000 troops from the Sumy region for a three-pronged push toward Zaporizhzhia, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlika. If executed, this could stretch Ukraine’s already strained forces and complicate defensive preparations ahead of winter.
Friday’s Trump-Putin summit in Alaska will be the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders since 2018 — and potentially the most consequential for Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
For Zelenskyy, the stakes are existential. Any agreement that allows Russia to keep territory seized by force risks emboldening the Kremlin and setting a precedent for future wars. For Trump, the challenge will be to broker dialogue without alienating allies or undermining Ukraine’s security.
As Europe warns against redrawn borders and Russian troops press forward in Donbas, the Alaska talks will test whether U.S. diplomacy can hold the line on territorial integrity — or whether geopolitical pragmatism will trump principle.
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