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The Sensex and Nifty extended their winning streak for a third consecutive session on Friday, buoyed by positive global sentiment following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to grant a one-month exemption on new tariffs for imports from Mexico and Canada. This move provided relief to U.S. automakers and contributed to broader market optimism.
Despite the recent upswing, Indian equity markets have been in a downtrend over the past five months. The Nifty 50 has declined 15%, while small-cap stocks have seen a steeper correction of 25%.
As the Indian stock market navigates both global and domestic uncertainties, financial analysts and brokerages have put forth divergent projections for the Nifty 50 index by December 2025. While some maintain a bullish outlook, anticipating the index could surpass 25,000, others remain more cautious about the trajectory. The contrasting forecasts reflect the mixed sentiment surrounding India’s economic and market prospects for the coming year.
Bank of America (BofA) Securities has set a Nifty 50 target of 25,000 by December 2025, citing attractive valuations following recent corrections. This forecast suggests an upside potential of approximately 11% from the current level of 22,545. However, BofA remains cautious on earnings projections, expecting muted growth compared to broader market expectations.
The brokerage anticipates negative returns in 2025 for small- and mid-cap stocks, highlighting their overvaluation on fundamental metrics.
BofA expects 90% of Nifty’s earnings growth to come from the following sectors:
Additionally, rate-sensitive domestic cyclicals such as financials and autos are expected to benefit from potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which could drive credit expansion and economic growth.
Axis Securities has adjusted its base-case Nifty 50 target to 24,600 by December 2025, highlighting risks from uncertain global trade policies, rupee depreciation, and relatively high market valuations.
The brokerage noted that India’s VIX (Volatility Index) remains below its long-term average, indicating neutral market sentiment, though short-term volatility persists.
Despite short-term risks, Axis Securities favors large-cap stocks, particularly quality companies, monopolies, and market leaders, as they are better positioned to outperform in the current market landscape.
The Indian stock market remains at a crossroads, with varying brokerage predictions reflecting differing perspectives on economic growth, inflation, and global headwinds. While BofA Securities maintains an optimistic stance, Axis Securities remains cautiously realistic, outlining multiple scenarios.
Investors will need to navigate global trade shifts, interest rate policies, and market volatility as they assess the best opportunities for the year ahead.
Analysis: U.S. Exports Facing High Tariffs – It’s Not Cars, But Food and Beverages
Contrary to U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims, it is not automobiles but food preparations, duck meat, oilseeds, carpets, and maple syrup that are among the most heavily taxed U.S. exports, according to a Moneycontrol analysis.
These goods accounted for 50% of the $7.3 billion worth of U.S. exports that faced tariffs of 60% or more in 2023.
Despite Trump's criticism of India’s tariff policies, the analysis reveals that India plays only a minor role in imposing high duties on U.S. exports.
Apart from food products, several alcoholic beverages from the U.S. also face high import tariffs:
A previous Moneycontrol analysis found that only 0.4% of total U.S. exports faced high tariffs globally. Among the countries imposing steep duties on U.S. goods, India ranked ninth, far behind South Korea, Mexico, Canada, and China.
While Trump continues to blame India and other nations for imposing high tariffs, data shows that food and beverage exports—not cars—face the biggest trade barriers globally. Furthermore, India’s role in restricting U.S. exports is relatively small compared to other major economies.
The S&P 500 climbed 1.59% to close at 5,954.50 points, while the Nasdaq gained 1.63%, ending at 18,847.28 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.39%, finishing at 43,840.91 points.
Wall Street wrapped up the week on a positive note after a volatile trading session, with Dell Technologies slipping while other tech stocks surged. The market reacted to escalating tensions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, whose White House meeting ended in a public confrontation.
The heated exchange, broadcast live to the world, amplified investor concerns over the Russia-Ukraine war, adding to existing worries about persistent U.S. inflation and a slowing economy.
Initially, the S&P 500 fell sharply following the verbal clash but later rebounded to close higher. Investors were further rattled when Zelenskiy left the White House without finalizing a highly anticipated U.S.-Ukraine agreement on natural resource development.
"The news, if you watched it live, was concerning. It was a heated moment, and Zelenskiy is considered an ally of the U.S.," said Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments. "That’s why the market initially sold off, but then cooler heads prevailed. In the end, Zelenskiy will either make a deal or he won’t."
All 11 S&P 500 sector indexes advanced, led by:
Trading activity was heavy, with 17.5 billion shares exchanged—above the 15.4 billion average volume of the previous 20 sessions.
A Commerce Department report showed that inflation rose in January as expected, but consumer spending fell 0.2%, following a revised 0.8% increase in December.
"Spending came in lower than expected, which points to a cooling economy. This creates a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, as inflation remains persistent while economic growth slows," said Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities. "If you combine these factors, we’re looking at stagflation."
Investors continue to gauge the Fed’s next move, as policymakers maintain a hawkish stance on interest rates.
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