US Pressure Mounts As Trump Threatens Venezuela’s Maduro

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Venezuela | Planet & Commerce

Tensions in the Caribbean surged this week as former US President Donald Trump issued one of his most direct warnings yet to Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, telling the embattled leader he could “do things the easy way … or the hard way.” The remarks came amid a major US military buildup in the Caribbean Sea and intensifying rhetoric between Washington and Caracas over the future of Venezuela’s political direction. Maduro, dressed in woodland camouflage fatigues, addressed supporters in Caracas as he vowed to defend “every inch” of Venezuela’s territory from what he called imperialist aggression. Evoking the legacy of Venezuelan independence hero Simón Bolívar, Maduro told thousands of supporters that it was the “historic duty” of the nation to stand firm against foreign threats. “We have to be capable of defending every inch of this blessed land from any sort of imperialist threat or aggression, wherever it comes from,” he said during his fiery address to “the revolutionary people of Caracas.”

Maduro pledged to give his life, if necessary, in defense of Venezuelan sovereignty. “I swear before our Lord Jesus Christ that I will give my all for the victory of Venezuela,” he declared, vowing to protect the country’s mountains, valleys and skies. His speech marked one of the strongest nationalistic appeals of his presidency, delivered at a moment when analysts believe Venezuela is facing unprecedented military pressure from the United States.

Speaking aboard Air Force One en route to Florida, Trump declined to outline the specific goals of the US campaign, now in its fourth month. Many observers believe the operation is aimed at unseating Maduro, who is widely accused of rigging the previous year’s presidential election. Officially, however, the White House claims the military deployment is part of a broader crackdown on Latin American drug trafficking networks said to be “flooding” the United States with narcotics. Washington has repeatedly accused Maduro of leading a shadowy drug-smuggling organization dubbed the “Cartel of the Suns,” which US officials this week designated a foreign terrorist organization. Independent analysts, however, argue that the cartel is largely a myth and has never operated on the scale alleged by American authorities.

Trump’s public messaging has been both ambiguous and ominous. “I’m not going to tell you what the goal is. You should probably know what the goal is,” he said when questioned about the endgame of his Venezuela strategy. He hinted at possible dialogue with Maduro but warned that Washington was prepared to escalate. “If we can save lives, if we can do things the easy way, that’s fine. And if we have to do it the hard way, that’s fine too,” he told reporters. The strategic uncertainty has left regional observers guessing about the next phase of US action. Venezuela, the sixth-largest country in South America and home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves, has long been the focal point of geopolitical competition. Maduro, facing both economic collapse and international isolation, has shown no indication he is willing to step aside. Sources with direct access to senior Venezuelan officials told the Wall Street Journal that Maduro and his inner circle regard the US military activity as a bluff. “Maduro believes that the only way the US can oust him is by sending troops to Caracas,” one source said. Given Trump’s well-known reluctance to deploy American ground forces abroad, officials inside the Venezuelan government reportedly believe that the US threats are designed more for psychological pressure than for imminent invasion.

Still, with more than ten US airstrikes already carried out in the Caribbean Sea against alleged drug-smuggling vessels, many national security analysts warn the situation could escalate further. Douglas Farah, a leading national security consultant and Latin America expert who advised Washington during Trump’s first term, suggested that limited US strikes inside Venezuela may be the next step. “I think that we’re going to start blowing things up,” he said, arguing that the size and scale of the US deployment in the Caribbean makes inaction unlikely. “There’s too big a force there to not do something.” Farah cautioned, however, that such strikes might not achieve their intended political effect. If targeted attacks fail to topple Maduro—much like the failed attempt in 2019 to push him from power—the Venezuelan leader could emerge emboldened. “[If that happens] Maduro will feel empowered. He’ll say: ‘Yeah, I defeated the United States,’” Farah said. In that scenario, prospects for a negotiated transition or peaceful exit could vanish for another decade.

The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s next steps has generated intense speculation across Latin America. Venezuela’s neighbors are monitoring developments closely, mindful that any escalation could destabilize a region already burdened by migration crises, economic hardship and political volatility. Maduro, meanwhile, continues to frame the US posture as neo-imperialist aggression aimed at Venezuela’s rich natural resources. His government has used the moment to rally domestic support, organizing mass mobilizations in Caracas and elsewhere to project unity in the face of what it calls a foreign intervention plot. Trump’s message—whether meant to pressure Maduro into concessions, provoke unrest within the Venezuelan military, or signal forthcoming military action—remains unclear. What is certain is that the United States has renewed its confrontation with Caracas at a moment of extreme vulnerability for Venezuela, where economic collapse, food scarcity and hyperinflation continue to define daily life for millions. As both leaders harden their rhetoric, the Caribbean stands at the center of a geopolitical standoff that could reshape regional politics for years to come. Whether the next move is diplomatic or military, the stakes for Venezuela—and for Washington’s role in Latin America—are higher than at any time in recent memory.

Japan | Planet & Commerce 

U.S. President Donald Trump privately urged Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi not to escalate her government’s dispute with China during a phone call this week, according to sources familiar with the high-level exchange. The request comes as Washington attempts to preserve a fragile trade truce with Beijing while managing rising tensions over Taiwan and navigating Tokyo’s growing anxiety about the United States’ strategic priorities in Asia. Takaichi sparked the most serious diplomatic confrontation with China in years when she told the Japanese parliament that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan—if such an attack posed a direct threat to Japan—could justify a Japanese military response. Her comments broke from the traditional ambiguity maintained by Japanese leaders and immediately triggered a furious reaction from Beijing, which warned its citizens against traveling to Japan and accused Tokyo of provoking instability.

Two Japanese government sources said Trump told Takaichi he did not want to see “further escalation” of tensions with China. One source noted that Trump made no explicit demands and did not ask her to retract her remarks, despite Beijing’s insistence that Japan clarify or correct her comments. Japan has maintained that Takaichi’s position aligns with longstanding government policy on regional security scenarios. Japan’s top government spokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara, declined to provide details of the diplomatic exchange when questioned at a Thursday briefing, describing it only as a routine conversation between allied leaders. The call between Trump and Takaichi followed a separate conversation between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. According to China’s official Xinhua news agency, Xi stressed to Trump that Taiwan’s return to China remained central to Beijing’s vision for the world order. Taiwan, which governs itself democratically and rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims, has become one of the most volatile flashpoints in East Asia.

Trump has not publicly commented on whether Taiwan was discussed during his call with Xi, instead telling reporters that the United States and China have “extremely strong” relations and are close to finalizing a wide-ranging trade agreement. He emphasized that improved U.S.–China ties are beneficial for Japan as well, describing Tokyo as a “dear and close ally.” “The United States’ relationship with China is very good, and that’s also very good for Japan,” Trump said in a White House statement. “We signed wonderful trade deals with Japan, China, South Korea, and many other nations, and the world is at peace. Let’s keep it that way!” But inside Tokyo, Trump’s public silence regarding Japan’s confrontation with China has deepened concerns. Japanese officials worry that Washington may soften its support for Taiwan as part of broader trade negotiations with Beijing. Two senior lawmakers from Japan’s ruling party told Reuters they had hoped Trump would express stronger backing for Japan, noting that reassuring words from the American president carry far greater weight than statements from U.S. diplomats.

Japan is home to the largest concentration of U.S. military forces stationed abroad, including a carrier strike group and a U.S. Marine amphibious force positioned to deter Chinese military expansion. Washington has welcomed Japan’s expanding defense budget and growing military capabilities, even as Beijing warns that Tokyo is reviving militaristic tendencies from the pre-World War II era. “We’d like a word from Trump himself,” one lawmaker said, adding that the president’s silence could be interpreted by Beijing as a sign that it has room to intensify pressure on Tokyo.

China has escalated its rhetoric sharply. The People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, accused Japan of attempting to “revive militarism” and urged Washington to prevent its ally from taking destabilizing actions. China’s defense ministry issued a pointed warning that Japan would pay a “painful price” if it overstepped on Taiwan, specifically criticizing Tokyo’s plan to deploy air defense missiles on Yonaguni, Japan’s westernmost island located just 110 kilometers from Taiwan’s coastline.

Amid this growing hostility, the Japanese prime minister’s office referred journalists to its official summary of the Trump–Takaichi call, which noted only that the two leaders had discussed U.S.–China relations. The office also denied a Wall Street Journal report claiming Trump told Takaichi not to provoke Beijing regarding Taiwan’s sovereignty. Takaichi’s comments in parliament represent a rare break from Japan’s careful diplomatic strategy. For decades, Japanese leaders have avoided detailing scenarios under which Japanese forces might intervene in a Taiwan crisis, choosing instead to maintain strategic ambiguity while deepening coordination with the United States. Now that Takaichi’s remarks are public, officials say they will be difficult to walk back without appearing to capitulate to Chinese pressure. Analysts warn that the dispute could severely damage Japan–China relations and potentially destabilize regional economic activity. With China serving as one of Japan’s largest trading partners, any prolonged diplomatic freeze could have substantial consequences for both economies already coping with global uncertainty, inflationary pressures and heightened military activity in the Asia-Pacific.

Experts in Tokyo view Trump’s interest as heavily weighted toward preserving stability in U.S.–China relations, especially ahead of his planned visit to Beijing in April. Kazuhiro Maejima, a professor of U.S. politics at Sophia University, said Japan has always been used as a “tool or a card” in Washington’s broader strategy toward China. “For Trump, what matters most is U.S.–China relations,” he said. With the stakes escalating and political messaging diverging between allies, Tokyo now faces a delicate balancing act—asserting national defense priorities while avoiding a rupture with both Beijing and Washington. Diplomats warn that missteps could trigger a “long winter” in China–Japan relations at a time when East Asia is already one of the most militarized and volatile regions in the world.