Trump Plans Putin-Zelenskyy Summit, Ukraine Demands Security
P&C | Tuesday, 19 Aug. 2025
USA | Planet & Commerce
Washington explores "Article 5-like" protection as Kyiv insists on strong guarantees
The war in Ukraine has stretched into its fourth year, and the latest proposal from Washington signals an ambitious attempt to break the deadlock. United States President Donald Trump has announced his intention to host a face-to-face summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a direct effort to bring Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine to an end.
The announcement came during high stakes talks at the White House, where Trump met Zelenskyy alongside top European leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. For the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, there appears to be momentum toward a trilateral meeting involving Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy.
Trump confirmed that his special envoy Steve Witkoff, Vice President JD Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are coordinating with both sides. While Moscow has not officially confirmed participation, Russia’s state-run TASS quoted Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov as acknowledging that Putin and Trump had agreed to keep “direct talks” alive.
Security Guarantees for Ukraine at The Core of Talks
While the symbolic summit dominates headlines, the real debate revolves around “security guarantees” for Ukraine. Trump has already ruled out NATO membership for Kyiv, but his envoy Witkoff suggested that Washington could support an “Article 5-like guarantee” for Ukraine, modeled on NATO’s collective defence principle.
Article 5, a cornerstone of NATO, declares that an attack on one member state is an attack on all. But unlike NATO’s automatic obligations, any parallel guarantee for Ukraine would depend on political will and may not commit guarantors to direct military intervention.
NATO’s Rutte described US willingness to coordinate on Kyiv’s security as a “breakthrough,” though details remain unsettled. Discussions did not include the deployment of American or European troops, but experts warned that written promises alone would not deter Russia.
Konstantin Sonin, a Russian exile and professor at the University of Chicago, stressed that European boots on the ground might be the only meaningful form of deterrence. He noted that Ukraine has been repeatedly betrayed by hollow guarantees — from the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 to agreements signed by Putin himself in 2004, all of which Moscow later violated.
Ukraine’s Vision: Drones, Weapons Purchases, And Long-Term Peace
Zelenskyy outlined a broader security framework that Kyiv believes would ensure lasting peace. Part of the deal includes Ukraine purchasing $90 billion in American weapons through European funding and launching a $50 billion drone-production partnership with US firms. Some of these drones would also be acquired by Washington.
The Ukrainian president told reporters that details would be finalized “within 10 days,” with a binding agreement expected soon. Kyiv insists that such arrangements must be more robust than previous accords, which offered promises without enforcement mechanisms.
European allies are discussing multiple security concepts:
- Peacekeeping Force: A large multinational deployment to deter Russian aggression, though it would require tens of thousands of troops.
- Tripwire Force: A smaller deployment meant to discourage Russian attacks by placing European personnel in harm’s way.
- Observer Mission: A limited presence tasked with monitoring, though offering little deterrence.
French President Macron has hinted that “several thousand troops” could be stationed in Ukraine after a ceasefire, while the UK has floated a similar idea. But none of these proposals are finalized, and their acceptance hinges on the shape of any negotiated settlement.
Territorial Concessions: Trump’s Pragmatic, Kyiv’s Red Line
Perhaps the most sensitive issue is territory. Trump has suggested that “land swaps” may be necessary, noting that Crimea would remain off the table in any deal. Russia currently controls roughly one-fifth of Ukraine, while Kyiv recently lost its temporary foothold in Russia’s Kursk region.
Secretary of State Rubio reinforced the idea that “lines on the map” would form part of negotiations. But Zelenskyy, while pragmatic in tone, has consistently rejected handing over land to Moscow. “We will leave the issue of territories between me and Putin,” he told reporters — a statement that signals possible flexibility but also deep risk for Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Analysts warn that unless sanctions and military pressure on Moscow remain firm, Russia will simply exploit talks to buy time while keeping its war aims intact.
The Sticking Point: Can Real Guarantees Be Delivered?
Experts remain divided on whether Trump’s push can yield a sustainable peace. Ukrainian scholar Iryna Skubii noted that no deal would hold if Moscow continued to demand territorial gains and political control. “That would mean Ukraine surrendering its sovereignty to the aggressor,” she said.
Others stress that unlike NATO’s Article 5, any “Article 5-like” promise for Ukraine would rely on political resolve — a resource often weaker than military commitment. As Janis Kluge of Germany’s SWP institute warned, “Outside NATO, there is no credible guarantor of Ukrainian security.”
For now, the White House talks have opened a fragile window of possibility. Trump’s personal engagement, combined with European willingness to contribute troops and funds, has given Kyiv cautious optimism. Yet, as history has shown, paper guarantees without real deterrence may only set the stage for another war.
India, China mend ties amid Trump’s tariff war escalation
P&C | Tuesday, 19 Aug. 2025
India| Planet & Commerce
Wang Yi and Jaishankar push cooperation as US tariffs rise
Five years after the bloody clash at Galwan, India and China are signaling cautious attempts at reconciliation, even as both nations face new geopolitical pressures from Washington. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Delhi for talks with External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar comes at a time when the United States under President Donald Trump has escalated its tariff war against India, penalizing New Delhi for continuing its energy trade with Moscow.
The visit marks a milestone in recalibrating Asia’s two biggest economies, which together represent nearly 2.8 billion people, as they seek to counter global disruptions triggered by Washington’s unilateral tariff actions. The consultations also come against the backdrop of the Modi–Xi Jinping meeting in Kazan last year, which had already signaled a tentative “restart” in India-China relations.
Jaishankar’s Emphasis On “Three Mutuals”
During the formal meeting, Dr Jaishankar stressed that India and China must pursue a candid and constructive approach based on the “three mutuals” — mutual respect, mutual sensitivity, and mutual interest. He underlined that differences should not be allowed to turn into disputes, nor competition into outright conflict.
The Indian minister said the dialogue would span trade and economic cooperation, river data sharing, connectivity projects, cultural and pilgrimage exchanges, as well as measures to stabilize border trade. Importantly, he noted that discussions with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval would also focus on de-escalation along the contested frontier, where peace and tranquility form the bedrock of any positive diplomatic momentum.
Jaishankar also called for a “fair, balanced and multipolar world order,” stressing the importance of reformed multilateralism and stable global economic frameworks in the current climate of volatility.
China’s Message: Warning Against “Unilateral Bullying”
A Chinese statement following the talks reflected a broader geopolitical message. Wang Yi declared that the world is undergoing a “once-in-a-century transformation” at an accelerating pace, accusing unnamed powers — an apparent reference to Washington — of pursuing “unilateral bullying” and destabilizing the global trading system.
He argued that as the world’s two largest developing nations, India and China bore a responsibility to show global leadership, strengthen South-South cooperation, and set an example for other developing countries in resisting external pressures. “China and India should strengthen their confidence, meet each other halfway, eliminate interference, expand cooperation, and consolidate the momentum of improvement in relations,” Wang said.
Strategic Concessions and Economic Cooperation
China has reportedly pledged to address three of India’s pressing concerns: supply of fertilizers, rare earth elements, and tunnel-boring machines. Rare earths, in particular, are vital to the production of high-technology goods, including smartphones and advanced weapons systems. Beijing’s near monopoly on their supply has made them a critical element of global trade politics.
India welcomed this assurance, viewing it as a step toward balancing trade dependency while diversifying strategic resources. The resumption of pilgrimages to Tibet, as well as a thaw in cultural exchanges, also highlight the gradual normalization in ties since the Modi–Xi meeting.
US Tariffs Put Pressure on New Delhi
The revival of India-China diplomacy comes as Trump’s administration hardens its stance on New Delhi’s purchase of Russian oil. Washington recently slapped 50% tariffs on Indian exports, impacting multiple sectors from steel to textiles. India has defended its Russian oil imports as market-driven decisions vital to ensuring the energy security of its 1.4 billion people.
Interestingly, Washington has refrained from imposing similar secondary sanctions on China for its massive Russian oil purchases. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that Beijing refines much of that oil before re-exporting it to the global marketplace, meaning penalties would ripple through global supply chains and hurt American allies as well.
This selective approach has sparked unease in India, with policymakers questioning why New Delhi faces steep tariffs while Beijing appears shielded from equivalent punitive measures.
Broader Geopolitical Balance
The India-China thaw, framed against the US tariff war, highlights a shifting balance in global diplomacy. While New Delhi remains strategically aligned with the US on Indo-Pacific security, its renewed dialogue with Beijing underscores the need for pragmatic engagement with all major powers.
For China, stabilizing ties with India bolsters its argument for a multipolar world order and provides leverage against US-led pressure campaigns. For India, easing border tensions and ensuring resource access while countering tariff shocks from Washington strengthens its room for maneuver in an increasingly polarized world.
Both nations, despite their history of mistrust, appear to recognize that cooperation may be the only path to navigating Trump’s hard-edged trade policies, as well as the broader challenges of global instability.
North Korea vows rapid nuclear expansion amid US drills
P&C | Tuesday, 19 Aug. 2025
North Korea| Planet & Commerce
North Korea unveils nuclear-capable destroyer as tensions escalate further
North Korea has once again raised the stakes on the Korean Peninsula. Leader Kim Jong Un used his inspection of the nation’s most advanced naval warship to issue fresh threats against the United States and South Korea, vowing a rapid acceleration of nuclear weapons development in response to what he described as increasingly provocative joint military exercises.
The declaration came on Monday, during Kim’s visit to the western port of Nampo, where he inspected the 5,000-ton-class destroyer Choe Hyon, a ship designed to integrate nuclear-capable ballistic and cruise missiles. His warning coincided with the launch of the Ulchi Freedom Shield, the annual 11-day joint exercise involving 21,000 troops — 18,000 South Korean and 3,000 American. The drills, described by Washington and Seoul as defensive, include computer-simulated operations and field training.
Kim, however, denounced the maneuvers as “invasion rehearsals,” claiming they incorporated a “nuclear element” requiring “proactive and overwhelming” countermeasures from Pyongyang. “The prevailing situation requires us to make a radical and swift change in military theory and practice and pursue the rapid expansion of nuclearization,” the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) paraphrased him as saying.
South Korea Plays Down North Korean Threats
South Korea’s new liberal president, Lee Jae Myung, who took office in June with promises to reduce tensions, has sought to frame the Ulchi exercises strictly as defensive. Presidential spokesperson Kang Yu-jung reaffirmed Seoul’s stance but declined to directly engage with Kim’s hostile rhetoric.
The South’s Defense Ministry also refrained from offering immediate new assessments of the Choe Hyon’s combat readiness. Officials emphasized that this year’s Ulchi drills aim to strengthen deterrence against North Korea’s advancing nuclear and missile capabilities. The exercises will also incorporate lessons from recent conflicts — from Russia’s war in Ukraine to Iran-Israel clashes — as well as responses to drone warfare, GPS interference, and cyberattacks.
Kim’s Naval Ambitions: Building A Nuclear-Capable Fleet
For Kim, the Choe Hyon destroyer symbolizes a major leap forward in creating a nuclear-capable navy. State media hailed the vessel as the centerpiece of Pyongyang’s naval modernization drive, capable of deploying air-defense, anti-ship, and nuclear missile systems.
The destroyer is expected to join active duty in 2026, but Kim has already ordered performance tests to be conducted this October. During his Nampo visit, he reviewed weapons integration and expressed satisfaction with the ship’s progress.
This was not Pyongyang’s first naval milestone in 2024–25. A second ship of the same class, the Kang Kon, was unveiled earlier this year but suffered damage during a failed launching in Chongjin, prompting Kim to call the incident “criminal.” The vessel was reportedly relaunched in June, though experts doubt its full operational capability. KCNA also reported that work is underway on a third destroyer, targeted for completion by October.
Nuclear Diplomacy Deadlock and Moscow Ties
Kim’s threats come against a backdrop of worsening regional instability. Since his failed 2019 summit with US President Donald Trump, North Korea has rejected all attempts at nuclear negotiations with Washington and Seoul. Instead, Pyongyang has doubled down on weapons testing and forged deeper ties with Moscow following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
These developments have alarmed US and South Korean defense planners, who now see Pyongyang not just as a nuclear-armed rival but as an increasingly aligned partner of Russia in global conflicts.
South Korean President Lee has tried to revive diplomacy. In his latest message, he offered to restore the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement, a deal designed to create buffer zones and reduce border tensions. That agreement collapsed in 2024 after Pyongyang launched trash-laden balloons across the border, prompting Seoul to resume front-line military activities and propaganda operations.
North Korea, however, has already declared it no longer abides by the accord, raising doubts about whether Lee’s outreach can succeed.
Rising Risks On The Peninsula
The Korean Peninsula remains trapped in a technical state of war, nearly 70 years after the Korean Armistice Agreement. Kim’s pledge of nuclear expansion, combined with the modernization of North Korea’s navy, introduces new dangers for regional stability.
For Pyongyang, showcasing new weapons during moments of US-South Korea coordination is a familiar tactic — one that reinforces its bargaining power while justifying further militarization. For Washington and Seoul, however, each new display underscores the urgent need to adapt defense strategies, balancing deterrence with efforts to prevent escalation into open conflict.
The tension now rests on whether diplomacy can be revived or if the region will continue its dangerous march toward a nuclearized standoff at sea and on land.
PM Modi’s Independence Day 2025 Speech Highlights
P&C | Friday, 15 Aug. 2025
India| Planet & Commerce
PM Modi’s Longest-Ever Independence Day Address Marks Vision for Viksit Bharat by 2047
On the historic occasion of India’s 79th Independence Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered a record-breaking address from the ramparts of the Red Fort in New Delhi. This was his 12th consecutive Independence Day speech, lasting 103 minutes — the longest by any Prime Minister in the country’s history. The wide-ranging address touched upon defence operations, economic reforms, technological advancements, energy self-reliance, and stern geopolitical messages to Pakistan and the United States.
The central theme of the speech revolved around the idea of a self-reliant, or ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’, and a vision to transform India into a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047, the year marking the centenary of the country’s independence. Modi’s speech blended celebration with strategic announcements, addressing both immediate security challenges and long-term developmental goals.
Operation Sindoor: A Defining Moment in Counter-Terrorism
One of the most powerful segments of Modi’s speech centered on Operation Sindoor, a decisive military action launched in May following the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that claimed the lives of 26 people, many of them tourists.
“I salute our brave soldiers who punished masters of terror beyond their imagination,” the Prime Minister declared, crediting the success of the mission to India’s growing defence self-reliance.
Operation Sindoor symbolised a shift in India’s counter-terrorism doctrine — from reactive measures to swift, precision-based offensives carried out with indigenously developed equipment. Modi underlined that without self-reliance in the defence sector, such rapid and effective military responses would not have been possible.
The celebrations this year strongly echoed the spirit of Operation Sindoor. The view cutter at Gyanpath, floral arrangements, and even official invitation cards prominently featured the operation’s logo alongside a watermark of the Chenab Bridge, signalling the rise of ‘Naya Bharat’.
Self-Reliance from Semiconductors to Space: A Technological Leap
A substantial portion of Modi’s speech was devoted to technological and industrial self-reliance. He argued that dependence on foreign nations undermines sovereignty, warning against letting such reliance become habitual.
The Prime Minister announced that India’s first indigenously produced semiconductor chip will hit the market by the end of the year, calling it a significant step in the country’s march toward becoming a technology powerhouse.
Key initiatives included:
- Mission Mode in Semiconductor Manufacturing – Designed to secure India’s place in the 21st-century tech race.
- Energy Self-Reliance Goals – With major pushes in solar, hydrogen, and nuclear sectors, including a tenfold increase in nuclear energy capacity by 2047.
- Private Sector Entry into Nuclear Energy – Opening opportunities for investment and innovation.
- Expansion of the Space Sector – Celebrating IAF Group Captain Shubhanshu Shukla’s 18-day mission on the International Space Station, Modi reaffirmed India’s commitment to space exploration.
- Gaganyaan Mission and Space Station Development – The government aims to build an indigenous space station, supported by over 300 space startups.
He also called on India’s youth to create indigenous social media platforms, develop Made-in-India jet engines for fighter aircraft, and participate in the soon-to-be-launched National Deep Water Exploration Mission, which will focus on oil and gas reserves under the sea.
Messages for Pakistan and the United States: No Compromise on Sovereignty
Modi’s address carried sharp geopolitical undertones. To Pakistan, he sent an unambiguous warning: India will no longer tolerate nuclear blackmail. The Prime Minister criticised the Indus Waters Treaty, suspended after the Pahalgam attack, as unjust and detrimental to Indian farmers. “Blood and water cannot flow together,” he reiterated, signalling a shift in policy toward water-sharing arrangements with Pakistan.
To the United States, Modi’s message was equally firm. Amidst ongoing trade negotiations, he emphasised that India would not compromise on agricultural sovereignty. The US has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods and threatened additional duties over India’s purchase of Russian crude oil. Without naming President Donald Trump, Modi accused certain nations of “economic selfishness” and championed the ‘Vocal for Local’ campaign, urging Indian traders to promote indigenous products under the motto “Daam kam, dum zyada” (Lower price, higher strength).
Mission Sudarshan Chakra: A New Era in National Defence
In a symbolic nod to Lord Krishna’s legendary weapon, Modi unveiled the Mission Sudarshan Chakra, an ambitious initiative to develop a powerful defensive-offensive weapons system. This system aims not just to neutralise incoming threats but to strike back decisively, embodying a deterrence-based security posture.
By 2035, Modi said, all public places will be covered under a nationwide security shield, significantly expanding India’s internal and external defence capabilities.
Economic and Social Reforms: GST and Employment Boost
The Prime Minister announced sweeping reforms to the Goods and Services Tax (GST), promising to introduce changes by Diwali that could reduce the prices of daily-use commodities. This move aims to ease the financial burden on households and stimulate consumer spending.
In a major employment initiative, Modi launched the Pradhan Mantri Viksit Bharat Rozgar Yojana, a ₹1 lakh crore scheme to create jobs for the youth. Under the plan:
- First-time private sector employees will receive ₹15,000 directly from the government.
- Companies hiring freshers will be given incentives to encourage large-scale recruitment.
- The scheme is projected to benefit 3.5 crore young people.
He also celebrated the contributions of ‘Lakhpati Didis’, women entrepreneurs whose success stories were highlighted during the celebrations.
Demographic Mission: Addressing Illegal Infiltration
In a sharp and controversial section of his speech, Modi warned of a “premeditated conspiracy” to alter India’s demographic balance through illegal infiltration. He accused infiltrators of stealing livelihoods, targeting women, misleading tribal communities, and encroaching on land.
To counter this, the government will launch a high-powered Demographic Mission aimed at tackling the problem within a fixed timeframe. This initiative marks a significant expansion of the government’s domestic security agenda, alongside its external defence strategies.
Acknowledging the RSS: A Centenary Tribute
Marking the 100th anniversary of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), Modi praised the organisation as the world’s largest NGO dedicated to nation-building. As the ideological parent of the ruling BJP, the RSS’s milestone was celebrated as a symbol of sustained voluntary service to India over the last century.
A Speech Framing India’s Roadmap to 2047
Modi’s 2025 Independence Day speech was not just a reflection on past achievements but a comprehensive roadmap for the next two decades. By intertwining defence preparedness, technological progress, economic reforms, energy independence, and social welfare, the Prime Minister sought to project India as a self-sufficient, globally assertive nation ready to meet the challenges of the future.
The key messages can be summarised as follows:
- Defence and Security – Enhanced through Operation Sindoor, Mission Sudarshan Chakra, and demographic control measures.
- Economic Sovereignty – With GST reforms, job creation schemes, and resistance to unfavourable trade terms.
- Technological Leadership – In semiconductors, space, and energy, with private and public collaboration.
- Cultural and Ideological Anchoring – Recognising national organisations like the RSS and promoting Swadeshi values.
By setting ambitious goals — from semiconductor production to space station development, nuclear energy expansion to nationwide security shields — Modi has positioned 2047 as the ultimate benchmark for India’s transformation into a Viksit Bharat.
Alaska Summit Could Shape Ukraine Deal Amid Ceasefire Talks
P&C | Friday, 15 Aug. 2025
USA | Planet & Commerce
Trump and Putin Set Stage for Potential Breakthrough at Alaska Summit
As the world’s attention turns to the icy expanse of Alaska, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are preparing for a high-stakes summit that could shape the future of the war in Ukraine. Scheduled for Friday morning local time, the meeting comes with a wave of speculation, cautious optimism, and underlying tension.
Trump, speaking ahead of the talks, expressed his belief that Putin is ready to make a deal, suggesting there was a “75% chance” of success. However, his remark about the possibility that Russian and Ukrainian leaders may have to “divvy things up” has raised alarms in Kyiv and among European allies. For many, the phrase hints at potential land swaps — an outcome that could mean Ukraine ceding some of its territory to Russia, including areas not yet captured by Moscow.
The Alaska summit is designed to be more than just a symbolic handshake. According to Trump, the initial meeting will serve as a “table-setting” exercise for a possible second, trilateral session involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Whether that follow-up meeting materialises will depend heavily on the tone and substance of Friday’s discussions.
First Impressions and High Stakes in the First Five Minutes
Trump, known for his emphasis on personal diplomacy, said he would know within “two to five minutes” whether the meeting would be productive. “If it’s a bad meeting, it’ll end very quickly,” he told reporters. “If it’s a good meeting, we’re going to end up getting peace in the pretty near future.”
His strategy underscores his belief in face-to-face negotiations, which he claims allow him to gauge sincerity and intent more accurately than written agreements or virtual talks. This approach, however, leaves little room for error — especially when the issues on the table include territorial sovereignty, ceasefire arrangements, and long-term security guarantees.
Trump indicated that if a second meeting does happen, it will be “very, very important” and potentially decisive. He floated the idea of holding it in Alaska as well, portraying the location as a neutral ground for the three leaders.
Kyiv’s Concerns Over Land Swaps and Partial Ceasefires
For President Zelenskyy, the stakes are nothing short of existential. Ukraine’s official position remains firm: any peace deal must include the restoration of territorial integrity and a full 30-day ceasefire to create conditions for broader negotiations.
A partial ceasefire — or any arrangement involving territorial concessions — would test Zelenskyy’s political standing at home and his relationships abroad. The notion of “divvying things up” carries echoes of past diplomatic compromises that left countries weakened and populations displaced.
Zelenskyy spent much of Thursday in London, conferring with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on how to interpret Trump’s latest comments and Wednesday’s video call with European leaders. According to sources, European officials were reassured that Trump is not seeking to bypass Ukraine in negotiations, though they remain wary of his instinct-driven approach.
European Diplomacy: Balancing Caution with Optimism
British officials described the Downing Street talks as cautiously optimistic. Starmer and Zelenskyy agreed that there is a “visible chance for peace” — but only if Putin demonstrates genuine commitment to ending the war.
The UK and its European partners are preparing contingency plans, including a European-led peacekeeping force to enforce any future agreement. Starmer co-chaired a virtual meeting of the “coalition of the willing” on Wednesday, highlighting a “viable” chance for a truce while emphasising the need for enforceable security guarantees.
European leaders are also exploring whether Trump could be persuaded to contribute US assets to this security framework, something he has historically been reluctant to do. US Vice-President JD Vance’s detailed grasp of the issues during the recent call was viewed as a positive sign by European diplomats.
Sanctions and the Economic Chessboard
Economic pressure remains a key lever in the negotiations. Trump has hinted at “very severe consequences” for Russia if it refuses a ceasefire, a veiled reference to potential escalation in sanctions. While he has so far refrained from imposing harsher measures on Russian oil exports, the US is set to impose additional tariffs on Indian imports at the end of the month, targeting India’s continued purchase of Russian crude.
The UK, meanwhile, is pushing for more targeted measures, such as sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers and on refineries processing Russian oil. However, Moscow is framing the Alaska summit as a step toward US-Russian economic cooperation, potentially relieving pressure on its state finances.
Any agreement that includes economic concessions to Moscow will be closely scrutinised by Kyiv and its allies, who fear a premature easing of sanctions could embolden Putin.
Putin’s Calculus and the Symbolism of Alaska
For Putin, agreeing to a trilateral meeting involving Zelenskyy would mark a notable concession, as Moscow has refused to recognise the Ukrainian leader’s legitimacy since the war began. His willingness to attend the Alaska summit suggests he may see an opportunity to secure favourable terms while avoiding further battlefield attrition.
The choice of Alaska as the venue is rich in symbolism: a territory once owned by Russia, now serving as the backdrop for potential peace talks between Cold War-era rivals. It offers both leaders a platform to project statesmanship, even as the underlying tensions remain deeply entrenched.
Security Guarantees: The Deal-Breaker for Kyiv
Any peace deal will hinge on credible security guarantees. Ukrainian officials are adamant that without these assurances, any ceasefire will be temporary at best. The challenge lies in defining these guarantees in a way that satisfies Ukraine’s security needs without triggering direct NATO-Russia confrontation.
Rubio, the US Secretary of State, acknowledged this complexity, noting that battlefield dynamics could make peace harder to achieve. He hinted at the possibility of European-led guarantees, potentially supplemented by US resources if Trump agrees.
The Summit’s Agenda Beyond Ukraine
While Ukraine is the primary focus, Moscow is keen to broaden the agenda to include steps for reviving US-Russian economic ties. This could involve discussions on trade, energy cooperation, and lifting certain restrictions — moves that could soften the economic blow Russia has endured since the invasion.
Such topics are likely to be contentious. For Trump, the challenge will be balancing the optics of negotiating with Putin while maintaining credibility with both domestic and international audiences that expect him to hold Russia accountable for its actions.
A Moment of Symbolic Diplomacy in London
The day before the Alaska summit, Starmer’s public embrace of Zelenskyy outside 10 Downing Street was a carefully choreographed gesture of solidarity. It recalled similar shows of unity after the failed February meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, when tensions flared in front of the cameras at the White House.
This time, the optics are different. European capitals are projecting calm resolve, signalling that they are prepared to back Kyiv even if Trump’s negotiation style introduces uncertainty into the process.
What Success in Alaska Could Look Like
For the summit to be declared a success, analysts suggest several key outcomes:
- A clear, mutual commitment to a durable ceasefire, ideally lasting more than the 30 days proposed by Ukraine.
- A framework for security guarantees that satisfies Kyiv and reassures European allies.
- A roadmap for a trilateral meeting involving Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy in the near future.
- Clarity on sanctions and economic measures, ensuring Russia faces continued pressure until it takes verifiable steps toward peace.
Anything less could be interpreted as a temporary pause rather than a genuine breakthrough.
Conclusion: A Summit Laden with Risks and Opportunities
The Alaska summit is poised to be a pivotal moment in the Ukraine conflict — not because it will end the war overnight, but because it could set the tone for the next phase of diplomacy.
Trump’s belief in personal diplomacy, Putin’s calculated openness to negotiation, and Zelenskyy’s steadfast defence of Ukraine’s sovereignty are the key variables in a complex equation. Success will depend on whether these three leaders can align their interests enough to produce a workable plan for peace.
For now, the world waits to see whether Alaska becomes the starting point of a new chapter in the war — or just another diplomatic waypoint on a long and uncertain road.
Trump’s Tariffs Unite Brics, But India Seeks Autonomy
P&C | Friday, 15 Aug. 2025
India| Planet & Commerce
Trump’s Tariff Offensive Spurs Unprecedented Brics Coordination
The Brics alliance — comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and recently expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates — is now one of the most influential economic blocs in the world, surpassing the G7 in many key indicators.
The latest catalyst for Brics unity comes from Washington. US President Donald Trump has launched an aggressive tariff campaign against the group, calling the bloc “anti-American” and targeting member economies with steep, punitive trade measures. His approach, likened by analysts to a “bull in a China shop,” has triggered a concerted diplomatic and economic pushback.
In the past month, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva each called Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to coordinate responses to Trump’s escalating economic measures. Modi is also set to travel to China later this month for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit — his first visit to China in seven years — where Brics unity and counter-tariff strategies are expected to dominate discussions.
Expanded Brics: From Emerging Economies to Global Counterweight
Formed in 2009, Brics began as a coalition of five emerging economies seeking to promote peace, security, development, and economic cooperation. It has now evolved into Brics-Plus, with 10 members and more than 60 intra-group institutions covering 34 agenda areas, from finance to technology.
Its initiatives include the New Development Bank, the Brics Contingent Reserve Arrangement, Brics Pay, and a basket reserve currency framework. The bloc has increasingly sought to reduce reliance on the US dollar, with China spearheading “de-dollarisation” campaigns through currency swap agreements and yuan-based trade invoicing.
While some in the West view Brics as a potential replacement for the G7, others see it as a geopolitical counterbalance, capable of challenging US-led economic systems.
De-Dollarisation: A Long-Term Strategic Shift
The US dollar still dominates international finance, accounting for 44% of all foreign exchange transactions. However, its global reserve share has dropped to a 20-year low, and the proportion of commodities priced in non-dollar terms is rising — particularly in the energy sector.
China, Russia, and Turkey have been the largest gold buyers over the past decade, diversifying away from the dollar. Russia now sells much of its oil in local currencies to “friendly” nations, while India and China pay for discounted Russian oil in dirhams or yuan. Bangladesh recently used yuan to pay Russia for a nuclear power project.
Saudi Arabia is considering pricing some oil in yuan, signalling potential cracks in the petrodollar’s dominance. Although de-dollarisation is gradual, the trend is undeniable — and Trump’s tariff policy risks accelerating it.
Trump’s Tariffs: From China to India and Beyond
Trump’s tariff strategy has been sweeping:
- India: Tariffs on Indian goods doubled to 50%, tied to continued Russian oil imports, which account for 36% of India’s total crude.
- Brazil: Similar tariff hikes, with added criticism over internal politics.
- Russia: 20% tariffs on many goods after losing Most Favoured Nation status.
- China: Blanket tariffs raised to 145%, prompting 125% counter-tariffs on US goods.
- South Africa: Facing 30% tariffs.
Trump has warned that Brics nations aligning against US interests could face an additional 10% tariff. His rhetoric has been blunt, calling India and Russia “dead economies” and accusing India of reselling refined Russian oil at a profit.
Crypto Gambit and the Brics Currency Threat
In a striking reversal, Trump shifted from dismissing Bitcoin as a “scam” to promoting the US as the “global cryptocurrency capital.” Analysts say this move is aimed at countering the proposed Brics currency, which could rival the dollar’s role in global trade.
Trump’s endorsement extends to his family’s crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, which has engaged in discussions with Pakistan — a move seen as both financial and geopolitical manoeuvring.
India’s Calibrated Balancing Act
India has adopted a “blow hot, blow cold” approach. While reaffirming its “steady and time-tested” ties with Russia — highlighted by National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s recent Moscow visit — India continues back-channel diplomacy with Washington to avoid full confrontation.
The Reserve Bank of India has allowed special rupee-vostro accounts for Russian oil companies, enabling them to invest surplus funds in Indian government securities. This supports bilateral trade while reinforcing India’s push for strategic autonomy.
At the same time, India is cautious of over-reliance on China, its second-largest trading partner after the US. Higher US tariffs could inadvertently increase Chinese economic influence over India — a scenario New Delhi is keen to avoid.
China’s Hardline Stance and Brics Solidarity
China’s ambassador to India, Xu Feihong, summed up Beijing’s position in a terse post: “Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile.” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi added that using tariffs as weapons “violates the UN Charter, undermines WTO rules, and is both unpopular and unsustainable.”
China’s advocacy for trade in local currencies echoes Modi’s statement at the Kazan Brics summit, where he touted India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) as a model for digital payments integration across the bloc.
Brics Unity Tested by Internal Rivalries
Despite the growing economic weight, Brics is not without internal tensions:
- India–China Rivalry: Longstanding border disputes and China’s ties with Pakistan complicate coordination.
- Diverging Alignments: Brazil, India, and South Africa lean toward non-alignment, resisting full endorsement of Russia’s positions.
- New Member Dynamics: Iran’s entry brings strong stances on Palestine and Yemen; Egypt and Ethiopia have regional disputes; Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain unwilling to alienate Washington.
The diversity of interests makes consensus on a Brics currency or uniform anti-US measures challenging.
G7 vs Brics: Shifting Economic Poles
The G7 — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US — maintains influence over global finance and security. But Brics has now matched G7’s combined GDP and surpassed it in purchasing power parity. Over 40 countries have expressed interest in joining Brics, including NATO member Turkey.
While the G7 aims to preserve the existing global order, Brics prioritises multipolarity and financial reform. The bloc’s expansion signals its growing role as a driver of global growth, but internal divisions mean its rise will not be without turbulence.
India’s Strategic Autonomy in a Multipolar World
India’s position within Brics is unique. As the only member in open rivalry with China, New Delhi walks a fine line — engaging with the bloc while resisting moves toward an overtly anti-Western agenda.
This balancing act allows India to benefit from Brics initiatives like non-dollar trade while maintaining strong ties with the US, EU, Japan, and other strategic partners. Whether on Russian oil imports, agricultural trade concessions, or digital payments collaboration, India’s guiding principle remains clear: independent decision-making based on national interest.
Conclusion: Tariffs Driving Brics Closer — But Not as One
Trump’s tariff war, intended to weaken Brics, may be having the opposite effect — pushing members to explore deeper cooperation in trade, finance, and diplomacy. Yet the bloc’s internal rivalries and diverse foreign policies mean unity will remain selective and strategic, not absolute.
For India, the challenge is to leverage Brics’ collective strength without becoming locked into an anti-Western bloc. In the evolving geopolitical landscape, New Delhi’s skill in balancing great power competition will determine whether Brics becomes a cornerstone of its foreign policy — or just one of many overlapping alliances in its global strategy.
Trump hot mic sparks speculation on Putin peace deal
P&C | Tuesday, 19 Aug. 2025
USA| Planet & Commerce
Trump’s Hot Mic Remark on Putin Sparks Viral Reactions
The possibility of a breakthrough in the grinding war in Ukraine took an unexpected twist this week after US President Donald Trump was caught on a hot mic telling French President Emmanuel Macron that he believed Vladimir Putin “wants to make a deal.” The remark, made ahead of a multilateral meeting at the White House, quickly went viral, offering rare insight into Trump’s private assessment of the Russian president’s intentions.
Trump, 79, has been positioning himself as the leader who can end the nearly four-year war swiftly. After holding a phone conversation with Putin following their meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, last week, Trump gathered European leaders in Washington alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss security guarantees for Kyiv and potential paths to peace.
“He Wants to Make a Deal”
According to the leaked audio, Trump told Macron: “I think he [Putin] wants to make a deal... I think he wants to make a deal for me, you understand that? As crazy as it sounds.”
The candid remark suggested Trump believes Putin may see him as the only leader capable of delivering a negotiated settlement. It underscored the unusual dynamics at play, where Trump’s personal rapport with the Kremlin leader could shape the contours of future diplomacy.
While Trump has often boasted of his deal-making abilities, critics argue that such statements risk signaling weakness or overconfidence, especially when Moscow continues to occupy significant Ukrainian territory. Nonetheless, his words were immediately dissected across media platforms and diplomatic circles as evidence of shifting ground in a war that has reached a grinding stalemate.
Zelensky ‘Ready’ For A Bilateral Summit
Outside the White House, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed he was “ready” to meet directly with Putin — a dramatic step that could pave the way for the first face-to-face encounter between the two since Russia’s full-scale invasion began more than three years ago.
In Moscow, a Kremlin aide echoed the sentiment, saying Putin was “open to the idea” of direct talks with Ukraine. Such a summit, if realized, would mark a historic moment in the war, which has claimed tens of thousands of lives and devastated Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
Zelensky’s readiness to meet Putin also reflected the mounting pressure he faces, both from Washington and European capitals, to explore political solutions even as the battlefield remains deadlocked.
Europe Rallies Behind Kyiv Amid Trump’s Push
The White House meeting drew seven European leaders, underscoring the weight of transatlantic involvement. French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte all attended.
Their presence was widely interpreted as a show of solidarity with Kyiv at a time when Trump has been urging Ukraine to consider concessions. European leaders remain deeply concerned about the precedent any territorial compromises could set, but they are also increasingly aware of war fatigue and the economic toll of prolonged conflict.
Zelensky also held a one-on-one Oval Office meeting with Trump, which he later described as their “best yet.” This marked a sharp contrast to their fiery encounter in February, when Trump and Vice President JD Vance publicly berated Zelensky for being insufficiently “grateful” for US assistance.
The Stalemate and What Comes Next
On the battlefield, the war has largely settled into a stalemate, with only incremental Russian advances reported in recent weeks. Trump’s summit with Putin in Alaska failed to deliver a ceasefire, but his push for a Putin-Zelensky summit reflects his determination to present himself as the broker of peace.
For Ukraine, the calculus remains fraught. While Zelensky insists Kyiv will not hand over sovereign land, his openness to direct talks with Putin indicates a recognition that Western support may hinge on engaging in dialogue, however uncertain the outcome.
For Russia, signaling willingness for talks allows Putin to appear pragmatic, even as his forces maintain pressure on the frontlines.
As analysts caution, much will depend on whether Trump’s personal diplomacy can produce meaningful results or whether the hot mic moment will simply become another viral flashpoint in a conflict that shows few signs of truly winding down.