Russia Declares “No Choice But War” After Ukraine U-Turn
P&C | Wednesday, 24 Sep. 2025
Russia| Planet & Commerce
Kremlin Reacts to Trump’s Dramatic Policy Shift
The Kremlin has responded defiantly to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sudden U-turn on Ukraine, insisting that Russia has “no alternative” but to continue its military campaign.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, speaking to RBC Radio, rejected Trump’s claim that Ukraine could win back occupied territory. He declared:
“We are doing this for both the present and the future of our country. For many generations to come. Therefore, we have no alternative.”
His comments came just a day after Trump branded Russia a “paper tiger” and voiced support for Ukraine’s ability to recapture all its land — a stance that starkly contradicts his earlier suggestions that Kyiv should cede territory for peace.
Trump’s Ukraine U-Turn
Trump’s change in rhetoric followed his meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). In a post on Truth Social, Trump declared:
“Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”
He went further, ridiculing Russia’s prolonged war effort:
“Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years a war that should have taken a Real Military Power less than a week to win.”
By calling Russia a “paper tiger” with a failing economy, Trump signaled that his attempted rapprochement with Moscow — including last month’s Alaska summit with Vladimir Putin — had collapsed.
Kremlin Pushback: “Bear, Not Tiger”
Peskov hit back at Trump’s remarks, asserting that Russia was more of a “bear” than a paper tiger. He admitted the economy faced “headwinds” after three years of rapid growth, with inflation eroding household incomes, but dismissed the idea that Ukraine could roll back Russian gains.
He also scorned Trump’s Alaska summit diplomacy, calling it a failure that had delivered “close to zero” results.
Europe on Edge: Spillover Fears Rise
Russia’s intensified aggression has rattled NATO allies in Eastern Europe, where a string of incidents has raised fears of escalation beyond Ukraine’s borders:
- Estonia reported three Russian fighter jets violated its airspace last week.
- Poland confirmed 20 Russian drones had entered its airspace earlier this month.
- Spain’s Defence Ministry said a military jet carrying Defence Minister Margarita Robles suffered GPS disturbances near Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave en route to Lithuania.
- A similar GPS jamming incident last month disrupted the flight of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen heading to Bulgaria.
NATO responded with stern warnings, reaffirming its “ironclad commitment” to Article 5 — the collective defense clause obliging all members to respond if one is attacked.
Drone Strikes Deep Inside Russia
While Russia steps up provocations in Europe, Ukraine continues to expand its drone campaign targeting Russian oil and gas infrastructure.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian drones struck the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat petrochemical plant in Bashkortostan, sparking a fire. It was the second strike in a week on the same facility, controlled by energy giant Gazprom.
These operations are part of Kyiv’s strategy to degrade Moscow’s energy exports, a key pillar of Russia’s war economy. Analysts note that Ukraine’s intensified drone strikes — often deep inside Russian territory — represent one of the most effective tactics in disrupting Moscow’s financial lifeline.
Trump’s Abandoned Rapprochement
Just weeks ago, Trump sought to project himself as a dealmaker by welcoming Putin to Alaska. Despite the red-carpet pageantry and high-profile optics, the summit yielded little. Peskov’s admission that the rapprochement produced “close to zero” results confirms that Moscow never intended to compromise on its core war aims.
Trump’s pivot to Ukraine reflects frustration at Putin’s intransigence, as well as growing pressure from NATO allies who demand stronger U.S. leadership against Russia.
Europe’s Strategic Dilemma
European leaders now face two urgent realities:
- Defend their airspace and critical infrastructure from Russian interference.
- Support Ukraine militarily as the war threatens to spill over into NATO territory.
The recent airspace violations and electronic warfare incidents show Moscow’s willingness to test the alliance’s resolve. Analysts warn that even a single miscalculation could trigger a broader confrontation under Article 5.
Russia’s War Economy Strains
Despite Peskov’s insistence that Russia will continue fighting for “future generations,” cracks are emerging:
- Inflation remains stubbornly high.
- Western sanctions limit access to technology and capital.
- Ukraine’s strikes on refineries have cut diesel exports to five-year lows.
Trump’s “paper tiger” remark may resonate with European leaders who view Russia as a military threat but an economic weak link.
Ukraine’s Determination
For Zelenskyy, Trump’s U-turn is a major boost. Having resisted pressure to concede territory, Kyiv now has the rhetorical backing of Washington for a full restoration of its borders, including Crimea.
Ukraine’s drone war on energy infrastructure, combined with NATO’s defensive posture, is intended to erode Russia’s ability to sustain its offensive.
Conclusion: A War With No Off-Ramp
The Kremlin’s declaration that it has “no alternative” but war highlights the deepening stalemate in the Ukraine conflict. Trump’s reversal, from rapprochement with Putin to calling Russia a “paper tiger,” underscores the shifting U.S. position but also risks escalating tensions.
With Europe alarmed by spillover incidents and Ukraine intensifying strikes inside Russia, the war shows no sign of abating. Instead, both sides appear locked into a cycle of escalation — with global consequences.
NATO on Edge After Russia Violates Estonian and German Air
P&C | Wednesday, 24 Sep. 2025
Russia| Planet & Commerce
Russian Aggression Tests NATO’s Resolve
In the past week, Russia escalated its confrontational tactics in Europe, pushing tensions with NATO to the brink. Following threats to Finland earlier this month, Moscow violated Estonian and German airspace, only days after launching a drone incursion into Poland.
The moves were widely seen as deliberate acts of diplomatic intimidation ahead of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), where Russia still enjoys sympathizers among non-Western nations. Analysts say the provocations aimed to isolate Europe, Australia, and Japan — the countries most steadfast in supporting Ukraine.
The escalation coincided with U.S. President Donald Trump’s major policy shift, declaring that Ukraine was capable of winning back all its territory, a reversal from his earlier calls for compromise.
Ukraine Pushes Back in Donetsk
On the battlefield, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii announced significant progress in Donetsk region. He confirmed Ukrainian forces pushed back Russian troops from Dobropillia and Pokrovsk, towns contested for more than a year.
- 164.5 sq km liberated.
- 180.8 sq km cleared of Russian sabotage units.
- Seven settlements restored under Ukrainian control.
Syrskii noted Ukrainian advances began in August, when 51.5 sq km were retaken, suggesting a steady acceleration in Kyiv’s counter-offensive.
Russia, however, also claimed gains, including Muravka in Donetsk, Novoivanovka in Zaporizhia, and Berezove in Dnipropetrovsk.
The battlefield remains fluid, but Ukraine’s ability to reclaim ground in heavily contested areas undermines Moscow’s narrative of inevitability.
Zelenskyy Declares Russia’s Sumy Operation a Failure
In northern Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared Russia’s Sumy operation had failed.
Russia had redeployed elite paratrooper and marine units to Sumy after counterattacks in Kursk earlier this year. But facing heavy losses, Moscow abandoned the offensive.
“The Sumy operation has failed. They suffered significant losses, primarily in manpower,” Zelenskyy said at a press conference.
Despite local setbacks, Russia continues to record net territorial gains. In August, it seized 499 sq km, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
Ukraine Strikes at Russia’s Energy Lifeline
Kyiv has increasingly targeted Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure, seeking to strangle its war economy.
Recent strikes include:
- Salavat and Volgograd refineries on September 18.
- A fuel mixing station in Samara, critical for export-grade Urals oil.
- A compressor station in Bryansk linked to the Steel Horse pipeline.
- Two aircraft destroyed at Kacha military airbase in Crimea.
Ukraine’s drone and cyber warfare units have inflicted mounting costs on Russia’s energy revenues. Moscow claims its air defenses intercepted 150 Ukrainian drones, including 33 aimed at Moscow.
Europe Prepares New Sanctions
In tandem with Kyiv’s strikes, Europe is preparing a 19th sanctions package to curb Russian energy exports.
At Trump’s urging, the package includes a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports beginning in 2027 — one year earlier than the previously planned 2028 phase-out.
Europe purchased over $8 billion in Russian LNG last year. The accelerated ban signals a tightening economic noose on Moscow.
Airspace Incursions: “Extremely Dangerous Provocation”
Russia’s military posturing in European skies has set NATO on high alert:
- Estonia: Three MiG-31s entered airspace for 12 minutes, transponders off, intercepted by Italian F-35s.
- Germany: Eurofighters scrambled to intercept an Ilyushin II-20 reconnaissance aircraft flying without a flight plan.
- Poland: Two dozen Russian drones shot down after entering airspace earlier this month.
- Baltic Sea: Russian jets made a low pass over the Petrobaltic oil platform, owned by Poland.
Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna condemned the violation as “unprecedentedly brazen,” while NATO spokesperson Alison Hart called it “irresponsible behavior.”
NATO and EU Response
The incursions drew a united Western response:
- Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief: called Russia’s actions an “extremely dangerous provocation.”
- Yvette Cooper, UK Foreign Secretary: “Your reckless actions risk direct armed confrontation between NATO and Russia.”
- Donald Tusk, Polish Prime Minister: pledged to shoot down unauthorized aircraft in Polish airspace.
NATO issued a statement:
“Russia should be in no doubt: NATO and Allies will employ, in accordance with international law, all necessary military and non-military tools to defend ourselves and deter all threats from all directions.”
Ukraine Expands Defense Cooperation With Poland
Kyiv isn’t waiting for NATO’s formal escalation. Ukraine announced a joint task force with Poland to develop drone research, training, and production.
President Zelenskyy also revealed Ukraine plans to export surplus weapons such as naval drones and anti-tank systems to Europe, the U.S., and global partners. He emphasized safeguards to prevent re-export to enemy states.
This marks Ukraine’s evolution into a weapons supplier as well as a consumer, leveraging its battlefield innovations to generate revenue for further defense spending.
Russia’s Denial and Narrative Spin
Moscow denied violating Estonian sovereignty, insisting flights were conducted “in strict accordance with international rules.” Russia portrays NATO’s alarm as exaggeration while doubling down on rhetoric that occupied Ukrainian land is permanently “Russian.”
At last year’s St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Putin famously declared:
“Wherever a Russian soldier steps, it is ours.”
Ukraine’s continued battlefield gains directly challenge this narrative.
Conclusion: Europe and Ukraine Confront Escalating Risks
Russia’s failed Sumy operation, Ukraine’s liberation of settlements in Donetsk, and Europe’s preparations for harsher sanctions all signal that the war has entered a new phase of escalation.
For NATO, the string of airspace violations highlights the growing risk of miscalculation that could trigger Article 5 collective defense. For Ukraine, the opportunity lies in sustaining pressure through drone strikes and weapons exports, while leveraging Trump’s surprising endorsement of its full territorial restoration.
The coming months will test whether Europe and Ukraine can maintain unity against Russia’s provocations — and whether Moscow’s gamble on intimidation will collapse under the weight of sanctions, battlefield setbacks, and international isolation.
NATO Eyes Drone Wall as Russian UAV Threat Grows
P&C | Wednesday, 24 Sep. 2025
Russia| Planet & Commerce
Russian Drone Threat Spills Over Europe
From the Baltic to the Black Sea, Europe is grappling with the growing menace of Russian drones. The recent incursion of about 20 Russian drones into Poland underscored a glaring vulnerability in NATO’s defenses. Despite scrambling multimillion-dollar fighter jets and deploying missile systems, most drones slipped through undetected, some crashing into rural areas.
Polish officials suggested Moscow’s drones deliberately targeted their territory, even as Russia denied the claim. This episode revealed what many in Europe already knew: NATO’s defenses, built for missiles and jets, remain ill-prepared for drones.
Estonia Builds Border Defenses but Drones Bypass Them
Estonia is reinforcing its land border with Russia by extending fences, digging anti-tank ditches, and building bunkers. But these defenses cannot stop low-cost, low-flying drones or Russian electronic warfare systems.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur bluntly admitted that “most of the drones were not detected” during Poland’s incursion. “This is a real gap we have to solve,” he warned.
NATO’s Air Defense Gap
NATO excels at tracking fast-moving jets and missiles, but drones are trickier. They fly low, slow, and are often built from wood, fiberglass, or plastic — materials difficult for traditional radar to detect.
Lithuanian Vice-Minister of Defense Tomas Godliauskas noted that NATO has a “very good understanding” of missile defense but must rapidly innovate counter-drone measures.
When Russian drones entered Poland, NATO scrambled fighter jets, helicopters, and missile defenses, but none were designed for drone warfare.
As former Estonian official Kusti Salm put it:
“Each drone is a lottery ticket that always wins — either it hits a target or it drains defenses by forcing Ukraine to waste costly missiles.”
The Drone Economy of War
The economics of drones make them especially effective. Russian drones cost only thousands, while intercepting them with missiles can cost hundreds of thousands. This imbalance drains Ukraine’s resources and could do the same for NATO if incursions grow.
Salm, now CEO of Frankenburg Technologies, is working on low-cost anti-drone missiles, stressing the need for affordability and mass production.
Estonian military commander Lt. General Andrus Merilo echoed this:
“I don’t need high-end systems I can fire once. I need good enough, affordable systems I can fire hundreds of times.”
Russian Electronic Warfare Adds Complexity
Beyond drones, Russia uses jamming technology to disrupt European defenses. In August, a Ukrainian drone crashed in Estonia, likely thrown off course by Russian electronic warfare.
Estonia and Latvia have also lost surveillance drones to Russian jamming. Civil aviation has suffered too: disrupted GPS signals have interfered with flights, including Copenhagen Airport, where air traffic halted for hours after drone sightings.
The challenge: developing systems that jam enemy drones without disabling one’s own communications.
Multiple Drone Incidents Across Europe
- Romania, Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia: drones crashed in rural areas.
- Germany, UK, Norway, Denmark: unidentified drones spotted near airports and military bases.
- Estonia: Ukrainian drone lost due to jamming.
- Copenhagen: drone sightings grounded flights.
Col. Māris Tūtins of Latvia warned:
“The number of incidents shows Europe needs to solve its drone problem right now.”
The “Drone Wall” Proposal
European ministers are debating a “drone wall” along the EU’s eastern border. Estonia and Lithuania pitched the plan earlier this year, but Brussels denied funding. Now, with more incidents piling up, momentum is returning.
Still, officials stress drones “are not mosquitoes.” An electronic barrier cannot swat them away. Decoy drones, high-altitude drones, fiber-optic tethered drones, and reconnaissance models all require different countermeasures.
Merilo suggested a multilayered defense:
- Sensors and radar for detection.
- Electronic warfare tools for jamming.
- Low-cost interceptor missiles.
- Attack drones to neutralize enemy UAVs.
Industry Roadblocks and Defense Politics
One hurdle is Europe’s reliance on traditional defense companies that profit from billion-dollar missile defense systems. Mass-producing small, cheap anti-drone weapons threatens their business model.
Merilo noted bluntly:
“Some technology exists, but the question is who — and how fast can they start producing.”
European startups like Frankenburg Technologies are developing small anti-drone missiles, but investment remains piecemeal. Salm argued that the EU must invest in startups to build scalable production lines for drone defense systems.
Ukraine’s Rapid Innovation vs. Europe’s Slow Pace
Ukraine develops and deploys new drone technology within weeks. Europe, bogged down in procurement red tape, can take years.
Lithuania’s Godliauskas urged Europe to switch to “semi-wartime thinking”, with governments, militaries, and industries collaborating at speed.
“Europe doesn’t have time to wait years for procurement. What works today might not work tomorrow.”
Drone Warfare Lessons from Ukraine
Ukraine’s experience offers Europe critical insights:
- Mass use of drones overwhelms even advanced defenses.
- Decoys force defenders to waste resources.
- Long-range drones threaten infrastructure deep inside Russia.
- Cheap drone swarms create constant pressure.
Ukraine has pioneered naval drones, long-range UAVs, and frontline quadcopters, often producing them faster than Russia can adapt. Europe could learn from Kyiv’s innovation cycle.
Calls for EU-Wide Action
Latvia’s Tūtins stressed that Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy includes cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage alongside drones. A fragmented national approach won’t suffice.
Instead, NATO and the EU need a coordinated drone defense network:
- Joint R&D funding.
- Cross-border drone detection grids.
- Shared rapid procurement mechanisms.
- Integrated airspace surveillance.
Conclusion: Drones Are Europe’s New Frontline
The Russian drone threat exposes NATO’s most glaring weakness. Traditional air defense built for Cold War-era missiles cannot handle low-cost UAV swarms.
As Russia ramps up drone use against Ukraine and tests Europe’s borders, time is running out. Leaders must embrace cheaper, scalable, mass-produced counter-drone systems, accelerate procurement, and integrate electronic warfare defenses.
Without this shift, Europe risks spending billions on legacy systems while Russia destabilizes the continent with drones that cost only thousands.
The choice is clear: adapt to drone warfare now or risk being outmaneuvered by Moscow’s low-cost playbook.