Poland Warns Nato Defense Would Cost €1.2 Trillion

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London | Planet & Commerce

Voters in the Gorton and Denton constituency in Greater Manchester are heading to the polls in a closely watched parliamentary by-election that could carry significant consequences for Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his governing Labour Party. The special election has evolved into a three-way contest between Labour, the Reform UK, and the Green Party of England and Wales, reflecting shifting political currents across England. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of the previous Labour lawmaker, and although the seat has historically leaned heavily toward Labour for much of the last century, the political landscape has changed dramatically since Labour’s landslide victory in July 2024. Starmer’s government has seen its popularity decline amid economic pressures, policy reversals, and mounting dissatisfaction within his own party ranks. Local polling and betting markets indicate that the race is too close to call. Labour’s candidate, local councilor Angeliki Stogia, faces strong challenges from academic-turned-commentator Matthew Goodwin representing Reform UK and Hannah Spencer, a plumber running for the Greens. The contest has drawn national attention because it encapsulates Labour’s struggle against rivals on both the political right and left. Reform UK, led by veteran hard-right politician Nigel Farage, has steadily climbed in national opinion polls despite holding only eight of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. By contrast, Labour controls 404 seats but is contending with slipping public support. Reform’s anti-immigration message and sharp critique of Starmer’s leadership have resonated in traditional working-class neighborhoods that once formed Labour’s electoral backbone. 

Farage urged voters to “vote Reform to ditch Starmer,” framing the by-election as an opportunity to send a clear signal to Westminster. The constituency includes areas where Labour’s historic dominance has eroded, with some voters expressing frustration over cost-of-living pressures and perceived inaction on key domestic concerns. Simultaneously, the Greens are mounting a robust campaign under leader Zack Polanski, expanding their appeal beyond environmental issues to include social justice causes and support for the Palestinian cause. The party currently holds four seats in Parliament but aims to leverage disillusionment among university students and Muslim residents in Gorton and Denton. Many voters in these communities have voiced concerns about Labour’s centrist shift and what they perceive as insufficient criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza. Green candidate Hannah Spencer argued that “voting Green is the only way to ensure Reform don’t win,” positioning her party as the most credible alternative to counter Farage’s surge. Labour, for its part, has warned that splitting the vote on the left could hand the seat to Reform. Starmer characterized the election as a stark choice between “unity or division,” seeking to frame the contest as a referendum on stability and responsible governance. However, the prime minister faces pressure from within his own party. With the next general election not required until 2029, Labour’s immediate vulnerability comes from internal critics contemplating leadership alternatives if electoral setbacks continue.

Since taking office, Starmer has grappled with delivering on pledges to revive economic growth, repair strained public services, and alleviate the cost-of-living crisis. He also promised a return to ethical governance following 14 years of Conservative rule marked by scandals and turbulence. Nonetheless, his administration has faced missteps and U-turns, particularly over welfare cuts and other unpopular policies. Recent controversies have compounded political tensions. Discontent flared within Labour earlier this month following revelations about the historical association between convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and Peter Mandelson, a veteran Labour figure appointed as the U.K. ambassador to Washington. Although the matter did not result in formal action against Starmer, it intensified scrutiny over leadership decisions and party unity. The Gorton and Denton by-election thus represents more than a local contest; it is widely viewed as a barometer of national political momentum. A Labour victory could provide Starmer temporary relief from internal critics and signal resilience against populist and progressive challengers. Conversely, defeat would underscore the depth of Labour’s vulnerability and highlight the growing strength of Reform UK and the Greens in traditionally Labour territories. Polling stations are set to close at 10 p.m., with results expected early Friday. As ballots are counted, party strategists across Westminster will be closely watching the outcome for clues about the direction of British politics and the durability of Starmer’s leadership in an increasingly fragmented electoral landscape.

Africa| Planet & Commerce 

The fragile hopes of a democratic transition in Guinea have been dealt another blow. On Saturday, the country’s ruling military government suspended the activities of its three largest opposition parties, including that of ousted former President Alpha Conde, just weeks before a critical constitutional referendum scheduled for September 21.

The decision, which comes under the rule of General Mamady Doumbouya, has been widely condemned by civil society groups and opposition leaders as an attempt to consolidate military power under the guise of constitutional reform. For many Guineans, the move deepens fears that Doumbouya’s promise to return the country to civilian rule following his 2021 coup is now in jeopardy.

The decree issued by the junta targeted Guinea’s three most prominent opposition groups:

1. Rally of the Guinean People (RPG): The party of former President Alpha Conde, who was overthrown by Doumbouya in September 2021.
    
2. Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG): Led by former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo, long-time rival of Conde and one of the country’s most influential opposition figures.
    
3. Party of Renewal and Progress (PRP): A smaller but significant voice in Guinea’s political landscape.
    

The order, read out on state television, prohibits the parties from engaging in any political activity for 90 days, covering the entire referendum period.

The junta claimed the suspension was due to the parties’ “failure to meet required obligations,” though it did not specify what obligations had been breached.

In a separate announcement on Friday night, Guinea’s military rulers also delayed the official start of the referendum campaign period, moving it from August 24 to August 31.

The referendum will ask Guineans to vote on a revised constitution that the junta says is designed to return the country to civilian government. However, opposition leaders fear that the new constitution could allow Doumbouya or other junta members to run for office, despite a 2021 transition charter that explicitly banned them from participating in future elections.

The suspension of parties has been described as a serious setback for democracy in Guinea. Opposition leaders argue it eliminates any meaningful competition ahead of the vote and silences dissenting voices.

Cellou Dalein Diallo, leader of the UFDG, condemned the ban, saying it was a “blatant act of repression” meant to stifle the will of the people.

Civil society groups, which had been planning demonstrations beginning September 5, say they will move forward despite the risks. Protests are expected to be met with heavy force, as all demonstrations have been banned since 2022 under Doumbouya’s regime.

Al Jazeera’s West Africa correspondent Nicolas Haque, reporting from Dakar, Senegal, noted that the suspension “strips away any pretence that the transition was actually working to protect democracy.”

“When Colonel Doumbouya came to power in a coup, he promised not only to bolster democracy but to give more space to political parties and civil society. What we’re seeing now is the opposite: three main political parties banned, unable to canvass, to post on social media. For them, it feels like a silencing of their voice.”
 

Haque added that the measure will likely prompt “more people to take to the streets, confronting security forces.”

Guinea has been under military rule since September 2021, when Colonel Mamady Doumbouya and his special forces ousted Alpha Conde after 10 years in power. Conde had become deeply unpopular after altering the constitution in 2020 to seek a controversial third term, sparking protests and violent clashes.

At the time of the coup, Doumbouya pledged to “rewrite the social contract”, promising to restore civilian rule through a transitional process guided by a transition charter. That charter stated that:

• No member of the junta, government, or military institutions could run in future elections.
   
• The process would include consultations with civil society and political parties.
   
• A new constitution would pave the way for free and fair elections.
   

However, three years later, opposition figures say the junta has failed to uphold its commitments, instead pursuing a strategy of tightening control while paying lip service to democratic ideals.

A draft constitution, presented to Doumbouya in June, is at the centre of the current crisis. While the text nominally sets out a framework for civilian rule, it is vague on whether Doumbouya himself could stand for president.

Legal experts say this ambiguity could be deliberate, allowing the junta to reinterpret restrictions in its favor once the referendum passes. Opposition leaders insist this is a blueprint for a disguised military presidency.

So far, international reaction has been muted. The African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have called for a peaceful transition in Guinea but stopped short of issuing sanctions.

Observers warn that Guinea risks following the path of other West African nations, such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, where military juntas have consolidated power under the cover of transition plans.

Western governments have also expressed concerns. The United States and European Union have repeatedly urged Doumbouya to uphold the 2021 commitments and avoid steps that could derail democratic governance.

Guinea’s political history has been dominated by strongmen and coups since independence from France in 1958. The suspension of parties before a referendum reflects a familiar cycle of authoritarianism cloaked in reformist rhetoric.

• Alpha Conde was the country’s first democratically elected president in 2010 but undermined his legacy by seeking unconstitutional third terms.
   
• Doumbouya’s junta capitalized on public frustration with Conde but now faces the same accusations of power-grabbing.
   
• Repeated bans on protests and arrests of opposition leaders demonstrate how the military has clamped down on dissent.
   

The suspension of opposition parties heightens the risk of violent unrest in Guinea, a country with a long history of street protests and state repression.

Civil society groups have already called for nationwide demonstrations beginning September 5, just weeks before the referendum. With the opposition silenced and security forces empowered, confrontations appear inevitable.

Guinea’s population, particularly in urban centres like Conakry, has grown increasingly restless over:

• Rising food and fuel prices.
   
• Lack of political freedoms.
   
• The uncertainty of a genuine democratic transition.
   

The September 21 referendum is now shaping up less as a democratic exercise and more as a test of Doumbouya’s grip on power.

• If passed, the new constitution could give the junta sweeping authority to shape Guinea’s future.
   
• If rejected or marred by protests, Doumbouya risks both domestic backlash and international isolation.
   

Either way, the suspension of opposition parties has already cast doubt on the credibility of the process.

The suspension of Guinea’s three main opposition parties ahead of a constitutional referendum represents a critical moment for the nation’s fragile democratic hopes. What was once presented as a path toward stability and civilian governance now increasingly looks like a power consolidation strategy by the military junta.

For Guineans, the stakes are clear: whether the September referendum ushers in a return to democracy or entrenches another cycle of authoritarian rule. For Doumbouya, it is a gamble that could secure his legacy as a reformer—or expose him as just another strongman in a region where democracy has long struggled to survive.