Putin Observes as US-Ukraine Relations Fracture, Strengthening Moscow’s Position

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House did not unfold as he had likely hoped. What was expected to be a diplomatic meeting quickly escalated into a tense and heated confrontation during a joint press conference with Donald Trump. The US president openly rebuked Zelensky, accusing him of “gambling with World War Three” and issuing a stark ultimatum: “You either make a deal, or we’re out.”

Adding to the tension, Vice President JD Vance criticized Zelensky’s approach, accusing him of “litigating in front of the American media” and calling it “disrespectful”. At one point, he even questioned Zelensky’s gratitude, asking, “Have you said thank you even once?” The press conference quickly became one of the most dramatic moments in Oval Office history, with Trump and Vance raising their voices, according to reports from The New York Times.

The heated exchange was fueled by deep disagreements over a proposed economic agreement, referred to as the "minerals deal," which Zelensky was expected to sign. However, Ukraine’s reluctance to finalize the deal is understandable, as its current framework raises several unresolved issues.

At the heart of the proposal is the establishment of a "reconstruction investment fund", which would be jointly owned and managed by the US and Ukraine. According to the terms, 50% of the revenue generated from Ukraine’s government-owned natural resources—including liquefied natural gas terminals and port infrastructure—would go into the fund.

However, a key concern is that the deal might extend beyond government assets, potentially involving private infrastructure owned by Ukraine’s powerful oligarchs. This could escalate internal political tensions and worsen Zelensky’s already strained relationships with influential Ukrainian figures.

While Ukraine’s obligations under the deal are clearly outlined, the extent of US contributions remains vague. The preamble of the agreement explicitly states that Ukraine already owes the US for past aid, emphasizing that “the United States of America has provided significant financial and material support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.”

Trump claims this amounts to $350 billion, but the Ukraine Support Tracker from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimates that the actual figure is closer to half that amount.

Western and Ukrainian analysts have also raised concerns that Ukraine’s mineral and rare earth deposits may not be as vast or accessible as previously assumed. Current estimates have relied heavily on Soviet-era data, which may not accurately reflect the country's present-day resource potential.

As US-Ukraine relations grow increasingly strained, the White House confrontation signals a radical shift in US foreign policy toward Ukraine under Trump’s leadership. For Zelensky, the challenge now is not just securing continued US support, but also managing tensions both at home and abroad.

President Donald Trump has followed through on his campaign promise to raise tariffs on Chinese imports, announcing on Saturday a 10% duty on all Chinese goods entering the United States. This move is part of a broader trade strategy that also includes tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Now, the key question for China’s leadership is how forcefully to retaliate.

Following the announcement, Chinese officials—who were caught off guard during a week-long public holiday—vowed to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) and implement "corresponding countermeasures," though they did not specify what form these actions might take.

China’s Ministry of Commerce condemned the tariffs as a “serious violation of WTO rules” and pledged to "resolutely defend its rights." However, Beijing’s response has been notably less aggressive compared to Mexico and Canada, both of which quickly announced retaliatory tariffs.

The 10% tariff on Chinese goods is lower than the 25% tariffs placed on all Mexican imports and most Canadian products, set to take effect Tuesday. Unlike China, which has already faced multiple rounds of tariffs, Canada and Mexico previously had near duty-free trade with the US.

Several factors may explain China’s relatively muted response.

Despite Trump's tough rhetoric on China, his second term has seen unexpectedly positive diplomatic engagements with Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump had what Trump described as a “very good” phone call just days before his inauguration, and China sent its highest-ranking official ever to a US presidential inauguration.

Trump has signaled his openness to negotiations, repeatedly stating that he hopes to work with Xi on resolving Russia’s war in Ukraine. In a recent Fox News interview, he also hinted that the US and China could reach a new trade deal.

While Trump built his campaign around competing economically with China, appointing several China hawks to his administration, his recent tone suggests to Beijing that now may not be the time for an all-out trade war.

The 10% tariffs imposed on China are far lower than the 60% tariffs Trump once floated during his campaign. Trump has largely linked these duties to China’s role in the fentanyl trade, rather than addressing the broader US-China trade imbalance.

Many analysts believe Trump may be waiting for the results of a broader review of US-China trade relations, which he commissioned via executive order on his first day in office.

According to an analysis from the Shanghai-based think tank Fudan Development Institute, Trump could use the findings of these investigations to justify expanding tariffs or testing China’s willingness to negotiate.

“The risk of escalating into a full-blown trade war cannot be ruled out,” the analysis warned. It suggested Trump may deliberately maintain ambiguity to pressure Beijing into making concessions.

China’s response so far—a WTO complaint—reinforces a central message from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP): that Beijing follows global trade rules, while the US does not. China has also defended its efforts to control fentanyl-related exports, arguing that America’s drug crisis is a domestic issue.

It remains uncertain how China will retaliate in the coming days. However, its initial response suggests a cautious wait-and-see approach, rather than an immediate escalation.

A Sunday opinion piece from state broadcaster CCTV criticized the “erroneous” tariffs but also advocated for more US-China cooperation.

Within China, experts remain divided on whether a full-scale trade war benefits Beijing.

During Trump’s first term, he imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, prompting China to retaliate with $185 billion in counter-tariffs.

The Biden administration kept most of these tariffs in place but introduced a more targeted approach, restricting China’s access to advanced technology with military applications—a move that Beijing has countered by limiting the export of critical minerals used in semiconductors and military equipment.

China recently strengthened its export control regulations, increasing its ability to restrict dual-use goods—items that could have both civilian and military applications. If Trump escalates tariffs, Beijing may respond by tightening these controls further.

At the same time, China has been working to insulate itself from US economic pressure. Trump himself has admitted that tariffs may cause economic "pain" for Americans, as businesses and consumers shoulder the costs.

According to US government data, the US imported $401 billion worth of Chinese goods in the first 11 months of last year, resulting in a trade deficit of over $270 billion—making China the second-largest supplier of US imports after Mexico.

However, China has been actively diversifying its economic relationships to reduce reliance on the US.

Keyu Jin, an associate professor at the London School of Economics, recently noted that China has long been preparing to decrease its exposure to the US market. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, she emphasized that China is diversifying its trading partners, investment strategies, and financial systems—including shifting away from reliance on the US dollar.

China appears to view Trump as a negotiator rather than an ideological adversary, leading Beijing to believe that there is still room for compromise.

While China’s response has been restrained so far, its next moves will depend on whether Trump escalates his trade measures in the coming months.

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been formally charged in connection with an alleged coup attempt aimed at overturning the 2022 election results and preventing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from taking office. According to documents filed by prosecutors on Tuesday evening, Bolsonaro is among 34 individuals facing charges, which include participation in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of democratic rule, coup d’état, and destruction of property through violence.

Prosecutors claim that the plot began in 2021, with efforts to erode public confidence in Brazil’s electronic voting system. In 2022, Bolsonaro allegedly met with ambassadors and diplomatic representatives to discuss unsubstantiated claims of election fraud. According to a statement from the Attorney General’s Office, this was part of a strategy to prepare the international community to reject the election results.

Despite no evidence of fraud, prosecutors assert that Bolsonaro and his co-conspirators continued spreading misinformation to discredit the electoral process. They further allege that Bolsonaro approved a plan to execute the coup, which included assassination plots against Lula and his vice president.

Prosecutors said the final attempt to overturn the election occurred on January 8, 2023, when Bolsonaro’s supporters were encouraged to mobilize in Brasília. On that day, rioters stormed and vandalized key government buildings, including the Presidential Palace, Congress, and the Supreme Court.

In November 2024, Bolsonaro and 36 others were indicted as part of the ongoing coup investigation. The case is now before Brazil’s Supreme Court in Brasília, where it could lead to a major trial. If the court formally accepts the charges, Bolsonaro and the other accused individuals will officially become defendants.

To prevent the case from affecting Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, Supreme Court justices are pushing to conclude the trial before the end of 2025. However, a decision on whether to proceed with the case or schedule preliminary hearings is not expected until early March.

The November indictment, which spans 844 pages, alleges that Bolsonaro had full knowledge of the coup plot and played a direct and effective role in planning and leading the scheme.

Following the formal charges on Tuesday, Bolsonaro denied any wrongdoing, telling journalists he had "no concerns about the accusations, zero."